Bryan, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

837
FXUS63 KLMK 190947
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
547 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
*  Continued dry and abnormally warm weather expected to continue
   through Saturday.
*  Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected into
   the weekend. With Afternoon RH values ranging from the mid 20s to
   near 30, elevated fire weather threat remains.
*  Rain chances return Sunday through late next week. General light
   rain spread out from late Sunday to Thursday morning will range
   from about an inch or less across central KY and southern IN,
   with locally higher amounts possible over southern Indiana and
   northern Kentucky.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
High pressure and ridging will remain over the region through the
day today. This will keep conditions dry and temperatures warm.
Expecting to see highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. With a very dry
atmospheric profile and ample mixing up to 700mb this afternoon, dew
points are expected to drop into the upper 40s and low 50s. Thus,
minimum relative humidity will be in the 24-30% range during peak
heating hours. With winds very light aloft, we will see light winds
around 5-9mph through the day.
In the evening, troughing will move into the Midwest region, sending
some vorticity into the lower Ohio Valley. Showers and storms will
approach the region from the west, but will quickly dissipate as it
encounters the dry air over the region. Could see a few sprinkles or
very light rain on our far western border. Convective debris clouds
will continue to stream over the region in the overnight, which will
likely shield some radiational cooling. Expecting to see low
temperatures in the low-to-mid 60s, with a few cooler spots in the
bluegrass in the upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Troughing over the Midwest will be engulfed by broader troughing
developing over southern Canada. This will keep troughing over the
region through Tuesday. Multiple shortwave disturbances will move
through the lower Ohio Valley bringing a chance for showers and
storms.
On Saturday, high pressure will be centered just east of the region
and will keep surface conditions dry and winds light through the
day. With the upper level disturbance moving through, we will likely
see scattered showers and storms approach the region, but quickly
dissipate as it encounters dry air still in place. Some areas in the
west and northwest portions of the region will likely see some
sprinkles or very light rain. Otherwise, we will see unseasonably
warm temperatures with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s.
Overnight Saturday into Sunday, we will see better southerly flow
and increased moisture. A steady stream of vorticity along the Ohio
River Sunday and Monday will bring scattered showers and storms
through the area. Greatest chances for rain will be over the
northwestern half of the region.
On Tuesday, troughing will shift east and zonal/northwesterly flow
will set up over the region as a cut off low travels east across the
central Plains. Vorticity will continue to shed from the closed low
over the Plains and travel into the Ohio Valley. This will keep
shower and storm chances over the region through late week.
Through the entire long term, LREF probabilities show a 60-70%
chance of exceeding 1.0 inches of rainfall over the northwestern
half of the region and a 30% chance of exceeding 1.5 inches. Over
the southeastern half of the region, look to see about 0.5-1.0
inches of rain through the week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 547 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions are expected through this forecast cycle. High
pressure and ridging will help to keep conditions dry, skies clear,
and winds light and variable. In the afternoon a thin Cu field may
develop around 6-8kft. In the evening, a quickly decaying line of
showers will just brush our western border before dissipating. Not
expecting any impacts from this at the terminals.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ029>031.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ077>079-
     090>092.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW

NWS LMK Office Area Forecast Discussion