Buffalo, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

946
FXUS64 KFWD 241045
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
545 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New Aviation, Short Term...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A line of showers and thunderstorms will shift east-southeast
  across North and Central Texas this morning into early this
  afternoon. Lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall
  are the primary hazards.
- Near normal temperatures will return today through Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
A line of thunderstorms is currently approaching the Highway 281
corridor and will near our I-35 counties and the Metroplex around
7-8AM this morning. Lightning, locally heavy rainfall, and
occasional wind gusts up to 30-40mph are the primary threats.
Thunderstorm coverage will decrease along the I-20 corridor by
late morning with the greatest rain chances continuing into the
afternoon across Central Texas and the Brazos Valley. All rainfall
should come to an end from northwest to southeast by 3-4PM this
afternoon.
Langfeld
Previous Discussion:
/Through Wednesday Night/
Our well-advertised cold front is currently pushing through the
northern half of the DFW Metroplex and will continue its trek
southeastward through the remainder of the night and into
Wednesday morning. Several clusters of thunderstorms are currently
ongoing: 1. Northeast TX on the nose of a 20-30 kt LLJ, 2. Along
the Red River near the 850mb frontal surface, and 3. Across
western Central Texas near the intersection of the dryline and
cold front. These areas will favor additional thunderstorm
development over the next several hours before a more widespread
round of showers and thunderstorms arrives near and after daybreak
Wednesday morning. As a mid-level vorticity maxima ejects over the
Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma early Wednesday morning,
another wave of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected
to develop over much of North and Central Texas generally along
and south of the I-20 corridor near the frontal zone. Expect
precipitation west of I-35 after 5AM, reaching the Metroplex
around 7-8AM, and shifting toward eastern Central Texas and the
Brazos Valley by late morning. Severe weather is not likely,
however a few stronger cores capable of producing small hail and
frequent lightning will remain possible. A few locations along and
east of I-35 may also pick up 3+" of rainfall by the time
rainfall ends Wednesday afternoon.
The cold front will push toward the Texas Gulf Coast by early
Wednesday afternoon with rainfall exiting our forecast area from
northwest to southeast by 3-4PM Wednesday. In the wake of the
frontal passage, partly sunny skies and much cooler afternoon
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s will sprawl across North and
Central Texas. With prevailing northerly surface winds and
clearing skies, expect temperatures to finally dip into the low to
mid 60s region-wide Wednesday night. A few rural locations west
of I-35 may even dip into the upper 50s by Thursday morning.
Langfeld
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 1238 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025/
/Thursday and Beyond/
Pleasant early fall weather with highs in the 80s and mostly sunny
skies will prevail through the remainder of the work week. A slow
warm-up is expected into the weekend with a few locations west of
I-35 approaching 90 degrees by Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows
will fall into the 60s region-wide each night.
Langfeld
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/
A line of thunderstorms currently stretching from KRPH to KSJT
will continue trekking eastward this morning reaching the
Metroplex and I-35 corridor around 12Z-13Z. We currently have a
couple hour TEMPO group for TSRA impacts at the D10 terminals from
13Z-15Z and KACT from 14Z-16Z. All precipitation should clear to
the southeast by 18Z.
Post-frontal MVFR cigs are also quickly filling in across North
and Central Texas. Expect these cigs to persist through much of
the morning, scattering out by midday. North-northwest winds at
10-15 kts will prevail through the remainder of the TAF period
behind a cold front that is currently pushing into Central Texas.
Langfeld
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    82  66  83  64  85 /  60   0   0   0   0
Waco                81  66  84  62  85 /  70  10   0   0   0
Paris               80  63  81  60  83 /  40   0   5   0   0
Denton              82  61  83  59  85 /  40   0   0   0   0
McKinney            81  63  82  61  85 /  50   0   0   0   0
Dallas              82  67  84  65  86 /  60   0   0   0   0
Terrell             81  64  82  61  84 /  60   0   5   0   0
Corsicana           82  67  84  64  86 /  70   5   0   0   0
Temple              82  65  85  60  87 /  60  20   5   0   0
Mineral Wells       83  61  85  59  87 /  60   0   0   0   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion