Bunch, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

862
FXUS64 KTSA 252321
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
621 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
- Patchy to areas of fog possible again late tonight and into
  early Friday morning in far eastern Oklahoma and western
  Arkansas. Locally dense fog cannot be ruled out in portions of
  far northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas.
- Dry weather with temperatures warming back above average by this
  weekend and into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Today has turned out to be a very pleasant, chamber of commerce
weather day across eastern OK and western AR. Surface high pressure
remains west of the area early this afternoon, which continues to
usher in a light to modest northerly breezy. Tranquil conditions
will persist through the remainder of the afternoon and into this
evening, with mostly sunny skies and temperatures reaching the mid-
upper 70s to lower 80s. With a drier airmass in place, temperatures
will drop-off fairly quickly after sunset. Overnight lows tonight
will trend towards seasonal average, generally mid-upper 50s to
lower-60s in spots.
Lastly, patchy to areas of dense fog may develop again late tonight
into early Friday morning across eastern portions of the forecast
area, especially across far northeast OK and far northwest AR,
despite low probabilities of dense fog (10-30% chance of
visibilities dropping below 1/2 mile) from both SREF and HREF. For
now, added patchy fog to these areas, but widespread dense fog
cannot be ruled out with ideal fog conditions in place for these
locations.
Mejia
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Southerly winds return by tomorrow morning and upper-level riding
will continue building into the region. Ridging looks to remain
intact over the forecast area through at least the middle part of
next week as an omega blocking pattern sets up over the central
CONUS by this weekend. Persistent, strong ridging aloft looks to
keep rainfall and any mesoscale boundaries unlikely through the
entire long-term period. As such, temperatures will gradually warm
into the upcoming weekend. After near seasonal temperatures on
Friday, Saturday and Sunday will rise above average and are forecast
to be the warmest days of the long-term period with widespread
afternoon highs reaching the low-mid 80s and upper 80s west of
Highway 75 both days. Surface ridging will build northeast of the
forecast area by early next week, keeping winds fairly light, but
veering more out of the east-southeast or east. Temperatures will
stay near or just above normal through Thursday.
Mejia
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Main issue for late tonight into Friday morning will be potential
for fog development mainly impacting northwest AR terminals, with
resultant IFR conditions. There also is some low fog potential at
a few other sites in eastern OK, but with a more limited impact
and lower confidence will not include in the forecast. Otherwise
expect VFR conditions through 06z tonight and after 14z Friday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  83  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   60  83  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   58  84  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   55  83  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   53  80  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   54  79  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   58  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   56  81  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
F10   58  82  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   59  83  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...14

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion