Bunker Hill, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

938
FXUS61 KCLE 212016
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
416 PM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A broad trough of low pressure will move into the Upper Great Lakes
today. This trough will continue east on Monday with a weak cold
front settling south into the local area Monday night. The front
will stall just south of the area until another low pressure system
tracks from the southern Plains towards the Central Great Lakes on
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The airmass has been slow to moisten and destabilize today which has
thus far had a limiting effect on showers and thunderstorms. A broad
trough at the surface and aloft is moving from the Upper Midwest
into the Great Lakes region. An area of light showers did move
through Toledo and cloud cover associated with this activity has
spread east and limited heating through early afternoon. A few
thunderstorms are starting to develop along a boundary from near
Marysville to Marion to the lake breeze in Cleveland. Scattered
activity is expected to increase/continue along this boundary while
gradually moving northeast this evening. ML CAPE is likely to
increase to about 1000 J/Kg and effective sheer is increasing to 25-
30 knots. Our first robust storm in southern Huron County has
exhibited some mid-level rotation and model soundings show veering
flow with height. With that said, mid-level lapse rates are weak and
that may prevent additional strengthening. We remain in a marginal
risk of severe weather and will be monitoring convection through the
evening, especially where shear may be locally higher along the
lake breeze.
One shortwave will generally pass east of the area through 03Z, but
deep layer moisture advection is expected to continued overnight and
so could additional showers and thunderstorms. Dewpoints are
forecast to be in the low to mid 60s by morning and PW values will
reach 1.7 inches by 18Z. More cloud cover is expected to be around
on Monday and that will keep instability a little lower. However, we
do expect to see showers and thunderstorms expand in coverage by
early afternoon as a stronger shortwave trough approaches the
region. Trying to place a surface boundary is going to be difficult
as a trough passes north of the area through midday. We do receive
some minimal cooling in the column and temperatures will drop back
into the 70s. Thunderstorms are expected to be efficient rain
producers on Monday and bring some much needed rain to the area. The
Storm Prediction Center has also highlighted the area in a marginal
risk for severe weather. Precipitation amounts through Monday look
to range from .75 to 1.25" of rain as the trough axis swings
through.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
By Tuesday an elongated upper level trough will extend from eastern
Quebec to the Upper Great Lakes to another trough over the Rocky
Mountains. The Great Lakes trough will drift eastward maintaining
potential for additional showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 70s given the clouds and
showers with a general 0.25-0.75 inch of rain expected through
Tuesday night.
The pattern becomes messy by Wednesday as a broad upper level
trough over the Plains curves northeast, taking on a slight
negative tilt. Both the 12Z GFS and ECMWF have trended towards
surface low pressure reaching the Mid-Mississippi Valley by
midday on Wednesday then continuing northeast towards the Great
Lakes. It looks like a break in the rain is possible on Tuesday
night and perhaps the first part of Wednesday before the next
good round of rain arrives with this system. Temperatures
recover a couple degrees on Wednesday then cooler again for
Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level and surface low pressure over the Central Great Lakes
will maintain active weather on Thursday and perhaps into Friday
before departing to the east on Saturday. Will have pops in the
forecast into Saturday with a drying trend expected towards Sunday.
Temperatures will also gradually trend up over the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Cyclonic SW`erly flow aloft and embedded/subtle disturbances
affect our region through 18Z/Mon. At the surface, a front has
stalled in vicinity of the southern shore of Lake Erie as a
ridge lingers over the lake and points farther to the north and
east. The front will finally move N`ward across Lake Erie as a
warm front this evening through the first hour or two of Monday
morning as the ridge exits to the north and east. Behind the
warm front, a separate ridge centered near the southern
Appalachians builds into our region through 18Z/Mon, yet subtle
surface trough axes accompanying the disturbances aloft will
sweep NE`ward through northern OH and NW PA.
Ahead of the front, surface winds trend SE`erly to SSE`erly,
while S`erly to SW`erly winds are expected behind the front.
Our regional surface wind speeds will be around 5 to 15 knots
and gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are expected at times, especially
through ~00Z/Mon and in NE OH and NW PA. Primarily VFR are
expected the rest of this afternoon. Cloud cover will increase
and mid/upper-level ceilings will develop and lower gradually
from the south and west the rest of this afternoon through
evening. Ceilings will then linger and continue to lower Monday
morning through 18Z/Mon. In fact, ceilings near 2.5kft to 5kft AGL
are expected to overspread our region from the south and west
between ~10Z/Mon and ~15Z/Mon.
At 17:10Z/Sun, rain showers were impacting KTOL and vicinity.
These showers are expected to exit NW OH to the northeast by
~17:30Z/Sun. Otherwise, very isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible through 21Z/Sun. Thereafter, scattered showers and isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and overspread
our region from the southwest, generally, through ~04Z/Mon. Periodic
showers and storms should then continue to impact our region through
18Z/Mon. Brief MVFR to LIFR are possible with showers and especially
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may produce brief/erratic surface wind
gusts up to 30 to 40 knots, especially through 01Z/Mon and after
16Z/Mon.
Outlook...Periodic non-VFR are expected with scattered showers
and thunderstorms through Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
A front remains stalled in vicinity of the southern shore of Lake
Erie through this early evening as a ridge lingers over the lake.
Later this evening through the first hour or two of Monday, the
front will sweep N`ward across the lake as a warm front and as the
ridge exits to the north and east. Behind the warm front, a ridge
centered near the southern Appalachians builds through Monday night.
SE`erly winds of 5 to 15 knots veer to S`erly to SW`erly with the
warm front passage and then remain S`erly to SW`erly around 5 to 15
knots through Monday night. These winds will flirt with 20 knots at
times tonight into Monday morning. Given wind speeds are expected to
be marginal at worst, refrained from issuing a Small Craft Advisory.
Waves will remain primarily 3 feet or less through Monday night, but
occasional 4 footers are expected in open U.S. waters after midnight
tonight through the early afternoon on Monday.
A cold front drifts SE`ward across Lake Erie on Tuesday through
Tuesday night and will be followed by a ridge building from the
James Bay area. The cold front passage and subsequent building ridge
will cause SW`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to NE`erly as
waves remain 3 feet or less. The ridge will exit generally E`ward on
Wednesday through Thursday evening as the embedded high pressure
center moves from the James Bay area toward New England. NE`erly to
E`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots should veer to SE`erly Thursday
evening as waves remain 3 feet or less. On Friday, a warm front
should sweep N`ward across Lake Erie and then a cold front should
sweep SE`ward across the lake by the end of the day as a low moves
NE`ward in vicinity of Lake Erie. The warm front passage will cause
SE`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to S`erly to SW`erly and
then the cold front passage should cause winds to veer to primarily
NW`erly as wind speeds remain around 5 to 15 knots. Waves should
remain 3 feet or less.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka

NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion