Burlingame, California Weather Forecast Discussion

923
FXUS66 KMTR 300752
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1252 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1251 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025
- Scattered showers possible along the coast and the higher
   elevations through the day
- Another cold front brings renewed chances for rain tonight into
   Wednesday
- Slight warming and drying trend begins Thursday with offshore
   flow possible this weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 1251 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025
(Today and Wednesday)
The short term forecast is dominated by a pair of cold fronts
stemming from a developing low off the coast of the Alaska Panhandle
and British Columbia, which is expected to pull in moisture from the
remnants of Typhoon Neoguri as it develops in the North Pacific. As
of midnight a band of showers associated with a weak cold front was
located off the coast of Monterey County, coming onshore in western
Santa Cruz and extreme southern San Mateo counties with the band
falling apart beyond the crest of the Santa Cruz Mountains. This
band is expected to continue diminishing as it travels southward
with any rain in the Central Coast limited to the coastal regions.
Any accumulations will be light and generally below a tenth of an
inch. To the north, scattered post-frontal showers linger through
the day across topographically favored locations across the North
Bay and into the Bay Area, again with generally light accumulations
expected through the evening.
A second weak cold front will then approach the region tonight
through Wednesday, bringing a new chance for rainfall. Pre-frontal
showers will begin tonight across the North Bay before the main rain
band comes through the region on Wednesday. Rainfall totals for this
system remain rather similar to the previous forecast. The mountains
of Sonoma and Marin counties should expect 0.5-1" with this system,
with 0.25-0.5" in the North Bay Valleys, 0.1-0.25" in the San Mateo
Peninsula, the western part of Santa Cruz County, and the East Bay
west of the Berkeley Hills and north of Oakland, and less than 0.1"
in the interior East Bay, South Bay, and the Central Coast.
High temperatures today remain around 5 to 10 degrees below
seasonal averages, with the inland valleys reaching the lower to
middle 70s and the coastal regions seeing the lower 60s to the
lower 70s. &&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 1251 AM PDT Tue Sep 30 2025
(Thursday through Monday)
Upper level troughing remains off the coast through Thursday. By
Friday, the trough moves inland with an upper level ridge building
in the eastern Pacific, with a possible inside slider developing
over the weekend. The ensemble model clusters continue to show
significant uncertainty in the location and strength of a potential
inside slider. This, in turn, keeps the uncertainty over the
potential impacts rather high. A weaker inside slider, or one that
develops closer to the northern part of California, may keep onshore
flow in place over the region, while a stronger inside slider that
develops over Nevada may turn the winds into a northerly/offshore
pattern. Wetting rains across the North Bay, and to a lesser extent,
the rest of the Bay Area, will likely alleviate fire weather
concerns, but not eliminate them.
Beyond the weekend, ensemble model clusters continue to hint at some
form of troughing persisting over the western United States through
the early part of next week. While conditions are expected to remain
on the drier side, the troughing will limit the expected warming,
perhaps leaving temperatures close to the seasonal averages to start
the next work week (middle 70s to lower 80s in the inland
valleys, middle 60s to lower 70s along the coast).
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1033 PM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025
The weak frontal boundary is draped along the coast, although the
impacts are petering out. Showers are now isolated and weak, and
continue on a drying trend. Ceilings will be a mix of IFR, MVFR
and VFR, with a good chance for fog at Santa Rosa after a rainy
day with the mid level clouds now clearing.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR ceilings expected through the night with
some a possible light shower or two. Tuesday will be drier with
high confidence in VFR conditions. Winds will likely remain out
of the WSW through the afternoon ahead of a second cold front that
will arrive on Wednesday.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR ceilings should persist through the
night with a slight chance for a light shower before scattering
out Wednesday morning. Winds will pick up in the afternoon from
the SW at MRY and NW at SNS before more high ceilings roll in
associated with Wednesday`s front.
&&
.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Sunday)
Issued at 1033 PM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025
In the wake of a dissipating cold front a few scattered showers
will persist Monday night. Another system will bring additional
rain showers to the waters late Tuesday into Wednesday. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds generally prevail across the coastal
waters through late this week. Occasional fresh wind gusts are
possible across the northern waters as each system passes. Seas
become moderate to rough and build to 10 to 12 feet mid to late
week and winds are expected to strengthen again late week into
next weekend.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...Flynn
MARINE...MM
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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion