Burt, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

890
FXUS61 KBUF 281410
AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1010 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building east and then south across the Great Lakes
will lead to an extended period of dry weather through the entire
week. Warm daytime temperatures through Tuesday will cool to more
seasonable levels by Wednesday, then trend back above normal later
in the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A stout ridge of high pressure will build east across the Great
Lakes from the Mississippi Valley through tonight, with the center
of the sfc high squarely over the forecast area by daybreak Monday.
This will maintain fair dry weather areawide, with typical nocturnal
valley fog tonight. Daytime temperatures today will be several
degrees warmer compared to yesterday.
The warm airmass (850mb temps around +14C) will remain overhead
tonight, so while ample radiational cooling conditions may result in
some low 40s (F) across the higher terrain inland from the lakes,
there remains little to no risk of frost anywhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc ridge wedged in over the region will continue the stretch of
fair dry weather Monday. Max T`s will be found well above normal
with 70s to low/mid 80s.
A moisture starved cold front will drop south out of Canada on
Tuesday. While dry weather will continue, cooler air will be
filtering into the Lower Lakes supporting cooler Max T`s across the
North Country and Lake Plains south of Lake Ontario. Highs mainly in
the 70s.
Strong sfc ridge (1032 mb) will build quickly southeast Wednesday
with continued dry weather. It will be cooler with highs near normal
for this time of year, with 60s across the area.
Wednesday night...clear skies areawide should support good
radiational cooling overnight. Given the cooler airmass filtering
into the region, H850 T`s falling down into the single digits, we
will see the potential for Min T`s to be found in the 30s inland
from the lakes. We may even see some `frost` but this may be limited
due to some wind flow because center of the sfc high remains to our
north.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sfc high pressure settles south and east over the Lower Lakes and
Northeast Thursday maintaining fair dry weather for the rest of the
work week.
A look at the weekend...while there is some uncertainty it appears
that high pressure will `likely` maintain the prolonged stretch of
dry weather. Temperatures will also return back above normal after
a brief stint of near normal temps.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR through tonight as strong high pressure builds into the
region from the west. A weak, moisture starved cold front may bring
some VFR cumulus to the region through early afternoon.
A round of valley fog expected tonight, though with the sfc high
moving directly overhead winds will be light enough for some
radiation fog in other locations. Low confidence in areal extent
though greatest chances will be east and southeast of Lake Ontario
(KFZY).
Outlook...
Monday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Valley fog and local IFR
possible each late night through the morning hours.
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet marine conditions with variable flow and winds mainly 10 knots
or less are expected on lower Great Lakes as high pressure maintains
its influence through Monday. Northeast winds will slowly begin to
increase throughout the day Tuesday as Canadian high pressure builds
south into the region and a tropical system churns off the East
Coast creating some chop, especially on Lake Ontario.
A stronger push of cooler air into the region will cause northeast
winds to sharply increase Tuesday night into Wednesday night with
speeds of 15 to 25 knots, with a period of SCA conditions expected,
especially on Lake Ontario.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PP
NEAR TERM...PP/TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...PP/TMA
MARINE...JJR/PP/TMA

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion