Burton, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

076
FXUS62 KCHS 251107
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
707 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will approach the region late this week, likely
stalling just offshore through the weekend and into early next
week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Aloft, the forecast area will be situated between a
positively tilted trough that stretches from the Great Lakes
region to the Southern Plains, and ridging centered to the east
over the Atlantic. This setup will place the area within deep
southwest flow and still pretty displaced to the east of the
primary trough axis. At the surface, the story is similar with
the forecast area being sandwiched between a front that extends
across the OH and TN valleys to the central Gulf Coast.
Concerning convective chances for the afternoon, most of the
forecast area looks as though it will still be just east of the
main zone of instability seen closer to the upstream front. The
model consensus is that most of the area will remain free of
showers and thunderstorms through sunset, with the exception
being the far inland tier of counties including Candler,
Bulloch, Jenkins, Screven, Allendale, and Hampton. Thunderstorm
chances in these areas would depend on storms developing
upstream and tracking through during the mid to late afternoon
hours. While there is a bit more deep layer flow across the
region today, deep layer shear will still only be on the order
of 20 knots or so. When combined with limited instability, it
isn`t a particularly impressive setup for strong to severe
storms. So, the forecast features 20-30 percent chances across
these far inland areas for the mid to late afternoon. Elsewhere,
conditions should remain dry though we can`t completely rule
out an isolated shower developing along the sea breeze. The more
impactful forecast parameter will be temperatures which are
expected to continue the recent run of being well above normal
for late September (6-8 degrees). Highs are forecast to reach
the low to mid 90s across the entire area, highest for interior
southeast GA/SC. This should yield max heat index values into
the upper 90s, certainly uncomfortable for this time of year.
Tonight: The aforementioned features including the trough aloft
and the surface front will both draw closer to the area through
the overnight. The main source of rain chances will come from
evening showers and storms across upstream areas that track
through within the southwest flow. The idea is that any cluster
of showers and storms should be on a diminishing trend with the
loss of heating and limited instability during the overnight. In
fact, we could see most of the activity become more confined to
the coastal waters, leaving most of the area dry. As such, rain
chances are held relatively low, mostly in the 20-30 percent
range. It will be yet another very mild night with lows only
dipping into the low 70s for most areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday morning will bring a break from the rain for a few
hours, though additional showers and thunderstorms are expected
to develop by the afternoon hours. This is due to numerous
shortwaves ejecting from the base of the trough, the cold front
moving through, with decent chances a sea-breeze will try to
form and act as an additional trigger for thunderstorm
development. Given the multitude of forcing mechanisms for
showers and thunderstorms, with precipitable water values
approaching 2 inches, WPC continues to highlight the area with a
marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall leading
to minor flooding. While chances for severe weather look to be
low (

NWS CHS Office Area Forecast Discussion