Bushnell, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

326
FXUS65 KCYS 091142
AFDCYS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
542 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms with
  primary threats being hail and gusty winds.
- A cold front will impact the area later this week with cooler
  temperatures and lowering precipitation chances for the
  weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 355 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
With an upper-level ridge sitting over the Rockies today, expect a
milder fall day across the area. 700 mb temperatures will be around
+10C, leading to high temperatures roughly 5 degrees above average
for this time of year. Highs across the area will range from the 70s
west of the Laramie Range, to the 80s and perhaps even a 90 degree
temperatures or two for areas east of the Range. Unfortunately, the
ridge will not be enough to keep precipitation chances at bay. A
weak disturbance moving through the ridge this afternoon will
provide lift for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Hi-Res
guidance has storms developing by mid-afternoon off the high terrain
and pushing eastward into Nebraska by the evening hours. Coverage of
storms will be greater than yesterday, but still scattered, so
some locations may see some rain while others may not. Severe
storms are unlikely with GFS model soundings maxing out MUCAPE
around 700 J/kg. However, given drier low-levels and inverted-v
soundings, strong, gusty winds could be possible in showers and
storms. Storms will move out during the evening hours, however,
a few showers will linger into the overnight hours as the
disturbance moves out of the area.
On Wednesday, the upper-level ridge will still be in place over the
area, but moving eastward. 700 mb temperatures will be a few degrees
warmer than Tuesday, resulting in slightly warmer high temperatures
on Wednesday. Yet another upper-level disturbance will move into the
CWA during the afternoon, sparking more storms. This shortwave will
be a bit stronger, with more instability present across the area.
With MUCAPE values up to 1700 J/kg in the panhandle on Wednesday,
cannot rule out a marginally severe storm or two. Both severe hail
and wind gusts could be possible in storms. Hi-Res guidance is split
on coverage of storms, with models like the HRRR only showing the
northern portion of the CWA affected by storms, the NAMNest showing
only an isolated storm or two, and the FV3 showing widely scattered
storms across most of the CWA. Hopefully newer model runs can do a
better job ironing out storms on Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 325 PM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Primary forecast concern in the long range forecast will be the
upper level Pacific trough...currently near the northern Cali/Oregon
coastline. Models are in good agreement through the end of the week
as this system moves into the forecast area later this week and into
next weekend. For the next few days, all models show this system
slowly moving onshore and eventually moving into the Great Basin
region on Wednesday and Thursday. Increasing southwest flow aloft is
expected ahead of the trough across the Front Range , which
typically results in warmer than average temperatures this time of
the year along with a decent chance for rainfall and thunderstorms.
A quick glance at NAEFS show portions of the area, mainly north of I-
80, around the 90th to 95th percentile for PWATs Wednesday through
Thursday. Convective parameters look good with SBCAPE of 1000 to
2000 j/kg east of I-25, and even close to 3000 j/kg across the
southern Nebraska Panhandle Thursday evening. Shear is very marginal
based on most model runs and ensemble guidance with 0-6km shear
hovering around 20 to 25 knots. Strong to near-severe thunderstorms
are possible, especially on Thursday, with model soundings
suggesting linear growth as lines of thunderstorms propagate east or
southeast (individual storm motion will be northeast). However, we
are getting to the time of year where thunderstorm coverage is much
lower compared to mid-summer...so kept POP below 35 percent due to
expected widely scattered coverage. There is also a noticeable lack
of forcing ahead of the main system on Wednesday, with a decent
shortwave disturbance embedded in the mean southwesterly flow late
on Thursday. Pleasant weather is expected other than the
thunderstorm activity with highs in the upper 70s (west) to upper
80s and near 90 east. Warmest temperatures will be below elevations
of 4500 feet.
Best chance for precipitation appears to be Friday as a stronger
shortwave ejecting northeast out of the four corners region.
Surface and midlevel cold front are also expected to gradually
move across the forecast area later in the day with additional
forcing continuing into Friday night. Kept POP between 40 to 60
percent over most of the area, but especially over the mountains
and areas well north of I-80 into east central Wyoming. This
cold front will bring cooler temperatures for late Friday and
into the weekend with highs dropping into the upper 60s west of
I-25...and into the 70s/near 80 for the eastern plains which is
slightly below average. Thankfully, the upper level trough will
slowly move eastward well north of the forecast area across
Montana and northern Wyoming. This will result in a much drier
airmass over southeast Wyoming with shower and thunderstorm
coverage becoming very isolated this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Main aviation concern today will be scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Storms could contain gusty
winds, small hail and moderate rain which could reduce visibility at
times. Showers could linger into the overnight hours.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...SF

NWS CYS Office Area Forecast Discussion