Cahone, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

755
FXUS65 KGJT 191147
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
547 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Moisture is increasing today, and a few showers and storms
  are possible over the San Juans and southern valleys.
- Periodic shower and storm chances highlight the forecast this
  weekend with dry stretches in between rounds of
  precipitation.
- Unsettled weather continues into early next week before a
  return of drier conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Moisture is beginning to advect into the region, as shown by the
increase in cloud cover on satellite imagery. Today the most
anomalous increase in moisture will stay south of I-70. Terrain
based convection is the primary precipitation forecast for the
afternoon today, but a some passing weak waves of energy may
support showers and thunderstorms outside of the higher terrain
where moisture is most abundant. Considering the dry air that
has been in place, virga may be possible with many of the
showers and thunderstorms today. Some showers are possible
overnight tonight into Saturday as weak disturbances continue to
move across the region. During the afternoon on Saturday PoPs
become more widespread, although still mostly over the higher
terrain, as moisture advects northward through the CWA. The
ECMWF Ens continues to favor more anomalous maximums in
moisture, but overall it looks like the greatest PWAT anomalies
will be around 150 to 200% of normal this weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
PWAT anomalies of 150 to 200% of normal will remain across the
forecast area at the start of the long term period. Despite high
pressure to our south and some ridging over the CWA, pieces of
energy will move through the mean flow, especially up north, and
will allow showers and storms to form in the afternoon Sunday though
coverage will be on the low side. On Monday, however, models are
suggesting another plume of moisture moving up from the southwest
while a separate trough approaches from the northwest. These two
features, if the forecast holds, will both affect the area during
peak heating Monday and may bring an active day with the San Juans
and northern valleys looking to see most of the convection. Some
precip will linger into Tuesday, favoring the Continental Divide and
northern mountains. Drier air moves in from north to south Tuesday
night into Wednesday but another shot of moisture is possible
Wednesday evening and by Thursday morning, PWATS may reach near 200%
of normal, if not a bit above. Discrepancies do appear between
models as far as how much moisture moves in, and also when. If this
moisture does move in, widespread convection will be possible
Thursday but this far out, changes in the forecast are expected.
High temperatures through much of the period will hover right around
normal values for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
High and mid level cloud cover will continue increasing today
as moisture moves in. With the increased moisture comes
increased chances of precipitation, mostly south of I-70. As
such, PROB30 has been included for KMTJ, KTEX, and KDRO. Strong
wind gusts are possible around any showers and thunderstorms.
Brief drops to MVFR conditions may be possible with showers and
storms, but otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion