867 FXUS61 KBGM 270538 AFDBGMArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 138 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS... Outside of a few isolated showers Saturday night around the Poconos and southern Catskills, dry weather will be in store through the weekend and through next week, with high pressure largely in control. Temperatures will be on the rise this weekend and will remain above average through Tuesday, but near freezing overnight temperatures could occur in some places Wednesday and Thursday night.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will be over the area today with warm and dry conditions to start the weekend. There will be some high clouds as a weak surface low and upper trough track along the Mid Atlantic Coast. This low moves offshore by early Sunday and enough moisture could sneak northward for a low chance of showers tonight across NE PA, mainly the Poconos, and the southern Catskills. However, at this time, our area will be on the outer fringe of the precipitation shield with this system, so any rain that does make it to our CWA will be light. Finally, areas of valley fog will return again overnight with lows generally in the 50s. High pressure will be overhead again on SUnday with temperatures well above normal for the end of September.
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.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will build back in for the upcoming week and lead to the start of another prolonged period of dry conditions for the region. Lows Sunday night range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s with good radiational cooling in the dry airmass. Monday looks to start with sunshine, then high clouds are expected to start streaming in from the south, but it will remain quite warm with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Cloud cover Monday night will keep low temperatures in the 50s.
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.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Model trends continue to show a potential tropical system possibly reaching the Southeast coast around Tuesday of next week. Over our region, a strong area of high pressure is expected to push south of out Canada and would keep any precipitation associated with the tropical system shunted to the south. Dry conditions are now expected through the entire period. Cool and dry Canadian air filters in from the north Wednesday and this will lead to more seasonable temperatures by Wednesday and Thursday. This airmass will also likely increase the frost/freeze risk, especially Wednesday night and possibly Thursday as well.
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.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions are expected today, but early this morning there will be IFR or worse fog, with the highest confidence at ELM, but restrictions are possible at all other terminals. High clouds are pushing into the region early this morning and this may hinder fog formation at some sites. Once low clouds and fog clear later this morning, then VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the TAF with high pressure in control.
Outlook...
Sunday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. IFR valley fog will be possible in the early morning hours.
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.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None.
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SYNOPSIS...DK/MPK NEAR TERM...DK/MPK SHORT TERM...DK/MPK LONG TERM...DK/MPK AVIATION...ES/MPK
NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion