Cameron, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

267
FXUS65 KFGZ 231047
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
347 AM MST Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Look for drier and mainly fair weather today and
Wednesday. Starting Thursday a low pressure system is set to
meander over the southwest United States ushering in unsettled
weather, likely lasting into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A dry trough located over Utah this morning will
dive southward across Arizona today and Wednesday. At the same
time, a cutoff low will wobble off the California coast but will
have little impact on Arizona weather until Thursday or Friday.
For today and Wednesday...The dry trough to the north will push
across our area. For today, lingering moisture will allow for a
stray shower or thunderstorm to develop with daytime heating from
the eastern Mogollon Rim and White mountains southward. By
Wednesday, dry northerly flow associated with the passing trough
will end any chances for shower or storm activity. Otherwise,
associated with the trough passage, look for north to northeast
winds today shifting to northeast to east on Wednesday. In
general, winds will remain in the 5 to 15 mph range but along and
south of the Mogollon Rim, in locations where northeast winds
tend to get funneled, local gusts of 20 to 25 will be possible
both Tuesday and Wednesday night.
From Thursday through early next week...Models show the cutoff
low moving over the southwest United States in response to passing
disturbances to the north. As the low makes it`s move moisture
from over the Gulf of California will be drawn northward across
Arizona. The specifics of day to day shower and thunderstorm
activity will be tough to forecast at this point but we do expect
a decent chance of such activity. The combination of tropical
moisture, relatively cold temperatures aloft and some vertical
wind shear associated with the low may deliver a few organized
storms becoming severe and/or producing flash flooding. However,
cutoff low features like the one we`re dealing with are known for
springing a few surprises, so while our confidence is growing in
the scenario described above, it will be best to check back for
updates.
&&
.AVIATION...Tuesday 23/12Z through Wednesday 24/12Z...VFR
conditions are forecast. Winds will be variable at 5-10 kts
through 18Z, then become north to northeast at 5-15 kts. Locally
gusty northeast winds in excess of 20 kts downwind of the terrain
overnight, primarily along and south of a KGCN-KFLG-KSOW line.
OUTLOOK...Wednesday 24/12Z through Friday 26/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions are expected. Look for dry conditions on Wednesday
with scattered -SHRA/-TSRA possible on Thursday. Light and
variable winds are forecast for Wednesday becoming south at 10-20
kts on Thursday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Turning drier. Look for a
stray shower or thunderstorm over the high terrain today, with fair
weather expected on Wednesday. Daytime winds north to northeast at 5-
15 mph today, shifting northeast to east at 5-15 mph on Wednesday.
Thursday through Saturday...A cutoff Low off the southern California
coast will deliver increasing moisture to the area with a good
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Daytime winds generally south
to southwest at 10-15 mph.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion