Cape Canaveral, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

083
FXUS62 KMLB 291905
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
305 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
- Prolonged, dangerous beach and marine conditions this week;
  life-threatening rip currents, high surf with breaking waves of
  6 to 10 feet, and minor to moderate beach erosion expected
- Breezy to gusty conditions, with the highest gusts at the coast,
  through much of the week
- Periods of scattered showers, especially closer to the coast;
  higher rain chances return late week into the weekend
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Now-Tonight...Tropical Storm Imelda is becoming more organized
this afternoon, located about 215 miles southeast of Cape
Canaveral. Some dry air and shear around the storm appear to be
limiting its intensification some, but it now has maximum
sustained winds of 60 mph. The latest official track takes Imelda
northward through this evening, before beginning a turn toward the
east-northeast tonight into Tuesday morning.
This afternoon, gusty winds are occurring along the Treasure
Coast and occasionally inland, as the pressure gradient tightens
on the northwest edge of Imelda. An upper trough and surface
boundary extends southward from the Carolina coast to near Cape
Canaveral. RAP sounding analysis reveals some dry air intruding
above 600mb with deeper moisture remaining closer to the surface.
This low-level moisture has been sufficient to maintain onshore-
moving showers, and the forecast keeps at least a 20 to 40 percent
chance of rain overnight along the coast. Despite Imelda`s center
being well offshore, breezy to occasionally gusty conditions are
anticipated along the coast tonight. A Wind Advisory remains in
effect until 4 AM Tuesday.
Dangerous beach and boating conditions continue to develop this
afternoon and evening, with long-period swells reaching the east-
central Florida coast. A very high risk of rip currents, moderate
beach erosion, and breaking waves of 6 to 10 feet are still
expected. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through at least
late Wednesday night. Beachgoers should stay out of the water!
Tuesday-Wednesday...Surface high pressure begins to build
southward from the Northeast and Great Lakes regions to the
Southeast U.S. Steering influence from an upper trough and
Hurricane Humberto will allow Imelda to push farther offshore
during this timeframe. Lower PW begin to advect into central
Florida Tuesday but especially by Wednesday, so overall, our rain
chances fall to 20-45% mid week. Any onshore-moving showers will
stay focused along the coast at night, moving farther inland each
afternoon. Dry air aloft will limit lightning chances, which are
only outlined for Wednesday. Breezy to gusty north-northeast
winds persist Tuesday, especially along and north of Cape
Canaveral, with slightly lower wind speeds forecast on Wednesday
as the pressure gradient relaxes.
Unfavorable, dangerous beach conditions will linger through mid
week as long-period swell from distant Hurricane Humberto
produces a very high risk of rip currents. The potential for minor
to moderate beach erosion continues through Wednesday, especially
around times of high tide. Residents and visitors are encouraged
to stay out of the water.
Wednesday-Sunday (modified previous)...A series of upper and mid-
level troughs will dig through the Southeast, as strong high
pressure develops over the northern portion of the eastern US,
into late week. Winds veer onshore Thursday into the weekend with
breezy to gusty conditions each afternoon, due to the tight
pressure gradient and strong ridge to the north. The strongest
winds will continue to be along the coast.
Higher moisture and rain chances (40-60%) return late week into
the weekend. By Friday, modest moisture in the mid and upper
levels will help to increase lightning chances, though they will
remain fairly limited. Near to slightly below normal temperatures
are forecast, with highs in the lower to mid-80s.
Strong winds and incoming long-period swells from distant
Hurricane Humberto will maintain hazardous seas and beach
conditions into the weekend. While the high risk of rip currents
and High Surf Advisory are set to currently expire late Wednesday
night, it is likely that they will need to be extended at least
through the end of the work week, if not the weekend. Residents
and visitors should remain out of the water.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Tropical Storm Imelda is moving northward this afternoon, making
its closest pass to east-central Florida (around 175 miles from
Jupiter Inlet). 41009 winds are increasing with waves around 7
feet and an incoming long-period swell of 11-12 seconds. The
forecast track for Imelda takes the storm on a north-northeastward
track through the evening, turning east-northeast early Tuesday
morning. Tropical-storm-force gusts are possible over the next
couple of hours in the far offshore waters, with high-end Small
Craft Advisory conditions beginning at 5 PM. Seas build up to
8-13 feet nearshore and 12-17 feet offshore by late tonight.
Strong northerly winds continue on Tuesday, slackening some on
Wednesday, before turning more onshore Thursday into next weekend.
Combined winds and seas will keep conditions hazardous over the
local Atlantic through the week. Right now, the Small Craft
Advisory is in effect through late Wednesday night but will likely
be extended in time.
Gusty showers and an occasional lightning storm, especially over
the Gulf Stream, will remain possible this week. Lower rain
chances mid week climb back to 50-60 percent Thursday/Friday
onward.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
T.S. Imelda to continue to bring intermittent VFR to MVFR CIGs,
scattered showers, and gusty winds through today into tomorrow. N to
NE winds today from 10-20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots will
continue into this evening, before diminishing slightly and becoming
N to NW at 10-15 knots and gusts to 20 knots tonight. Winds will
become N to NE and increase to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25
knots by mid-morning Tuesday. Onshore moving showers with isolated
lightning storms will continue through tomorrow. Have continued VCSH
across all terminals through the overnight hours, and added VCSH for
all terminals, except LEE, starting at 15z going through the
afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  84  73  84 /  40  50  20  30
MCO  75  87  73  88 /  20  40  10  30
MLB  75  87  75  86 /  40  50  30  40
VRB  74  87  73  86 /  40  40  30  40
LEE  73  87  71  87 /  10  30  10  20
SFB  75  86  73  86 /  30  40  20  30
ORL  75  86  73  87 /  20  40  10  30
FPR  74  87  73  87 /  40  50  30  40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ041-141-154-159-164-
     247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.
High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.
AM...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Alvarez/Watson

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion