Cape Fair, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

682
FXUS63 KSGF 091707
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1207 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly northwest of I-44
  late this morning into the afternoon.
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through at least
  this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 108 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Mid-level shortwave is currently over central MO, but very dry
air over the area is limiting any precip to sprinkles at most.
Look for warmer conditions today with highs in the 80s. Another
dry day over the central and eastern CWA with minRH values of
20-30%. Over the western CWA, minRH values will be 35-45% due to
greater moisture levels that will also yield potential for some
isolated showers or sprinkles.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 108 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
The pattern currently features a mid-level ridge over the
intermountain west and NW flow over the CWA. This pattern
gradually shifts east, as is well agreed on by models. This
results in mostly dry conditions and warming temperatures.
Normal high temperatures are in the low to mid 80s, but the
forecast is for highs in the low to mid 90s starting Wednesday,
but especially Thursday through the weekend. Not forecasting any
record highs right now, but will be worth watching at SGF, VIH,
and UNO where the forecast is within 5 degrees of record highs.
Looking at next week, models continue to diverge on the
pattern. About 30% of ensemble members are clustered in showing
a mid- level low over the Great Lakes with a trough extending
through our area. This would result in cooler temperatures and
chances for rain. As such, the NBM has introduced 15-25% chances
for rain Sunday night and Monday. Still, 70% of ensemble
members show the ridge continuing to build over the area, which
would keep our hot and dry pattern.
Looking at rainfall patterns through the rest of the month, the
ensembles have been trending slightly wetter. While previous
runs showed negative precip anomalies through much or all of
September, latest runs show neutral anomalies (near normal
rainfall) for the last 10 days or so of the month. Drought will
continue to expand and worsen until more substantive rainfall
occurs.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
For the 18z TAFS, remnants of a thunderstorm complex were
pushing into west central MO, southwest MO and extreme southeast
KS early this afternoon. Coverage is likely to diminish the
further east it moves into the area given lack of instability
and drier air. Have gone with VCSH at SGF and prob30 at JLN for
coverage purposes with the showers, but ceilings should remain
high enough for overall VFR conditions. We have convection
ending by 00z. A light southerly wind generally less than 10 kts
is expected through the period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Lindenberg

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion