Carlisle, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

653
FXUS64 KLZK 211102
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
602 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
-Strong to severe storms will be possible across northern Arkansas
 overnight through Sunday morning.
-Additional rounds of widespread rain are likely late Sunday
 evening through Wednesday across much of the state.
-Hot and humid conditions will continue today, lasting through
 early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
To begin the period, a somewhat active weather pattern is expected
over the next several days as multiple shortwaves move across the
state. With it comes the chance for showers, thunderstorms, and
cooler temperatures (later in the week). The best chance for rain
through the period will be Monday through Wednesday morning. While
widespread severe is not expected, some isolated storms could
produce severe hail and/or wind gusts.
As of this forecast package, showers and thunderstorms continue to
move across northern locations bringing the chance for small hail
and gusty winds. With that said, the bigger threat could be flash
flooding due to heavy rainfall and training thunderstorms.
As with any scattered convection, exact totals depend where storms
set up. Northern Arkansas will likely see the most in the way of
rain accumulations with two to four inches possible through
Wednesday. Lesser amounts are expected the further south you go
across the state with one to three inches possible across central
locations and up to an inch for southern locations. Higher
accumulations will be possible for areas with consistent storms or
training.
Temperatures are expected to be average to above average through
much of the period with high temperatures in the lower 80s (mainly
northern locations) to lower 90s and overnight low temperatures
dropping into the lower 60s to lower 70s across the state.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period as a
brief break in the shower activity is expected through the morning
and early afternoon hours. Showers and storms will once again be
possible late Sunday as conditions continue to worsen into Monday.
Winds will become out of the south and southwest by Sunday
afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     92  68  87  67 /  40  30  60  60
Camden AR         93  68  90  70 /  10  10  30  20
Harrison AR       87  65  81  65 /  50  40  80  70
Hot Springs AR    92  68  88  69 /  10  20  50  40
Little Rock   AR  92  70  88  71 /  10  20  40  40
Monticello AR     95  70  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
Mount Ida AR      91  69  87  69 /  10  20  50  40
Mountain Home AR  90  66  83  65 /  60  40  70  60
Newport AR        92  68  88  68 /  40  30  50  60
Pine Bluff AR     93  68  91  70 /  10  10  30  20
Russellville AR   93  69  87  69 /  10  30  60  50
Searcy AR         93  68  88  68 /  20  20  50  50
Stuttgart AR      93  69  90  70 /  10  20  30  40
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...73

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion