Carlton, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

670
FXUS64 KFWD 061040
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
540 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few strong thunderstorms will continue over parts of North
  Texas through sunrise Saturday. Lightning and downburst winds
  will be the main threats.
- Cooler weather and rain chances continue through Monday behind a
  cold front.
- Hotter and drier weather will return mid to late next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1252 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025/
/Today and Tonight/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing at this time
across North and Central Texas as a disturbance moves overhead.
With the jet stream situated atop our region, continued impulses
will traverse across our sky, keeping rain chance ongoing through
the morning hours.
Overall, expect instability to gradually wane through sunrise,
however, there should still be enough CAPE for occasional claps
of thunder through the early morning hours. The threat for severe
weather will continue to diminish, leaving behind a lightning and
gusty wind threat through the mid-morning hours.
As dry air begins to filter in from the north, expect a gradual
southward shift in the showers and isolated storms during the day.
Although the threat for severe storms this afternoon will be low,
a few strong storms cannot be ruled out across Central Texas. The
main threat would be strong downburst winds.
Rain chances across our region will come to an end as we approach
sunset given a lack of forcing for ascent and increasing dry air
out of the northeast. Expect a relatively dry Saturday evening
with comfortable temperatures and light northeasterly winds.
Temperatures today will only make it to the mid to upper 70s
across North Texas with 80s in Central Texas.
Tonight, an incoming shortwave will tap into available moisture
across Central Texas. The latest guidance suggest rain showers
could develop as early as 4am Sunday across Central Texas. With
continued dry air in North Texas, rain chances will remain below
10% through sunrise Sunday.
Hernandez
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 1252 AM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025/
/Sunday Onward/
The ridge across Central Mexico responsible for advecting
disturbances atop our region will begin to retrograde westward.
This will turn our mid-level flow from zonal to northwesterly as
we begin a new week. The near-surface environment will be
influenced by a strong area of high pressure, located near the
Great Lakes region. This area of high pressure will reduce the
amount of available moisture across much of the region on Sunday.
The one exception will be across our Central Texas counties, where
the airmass will have slightly better moisture as a disturbance
moves overhead. This will lead to a few showers and isolated
storms on Sunday, mainly across Central Texas. By the latter half
of the week, the area of high pressure over the Great Lakes will
shift northeast, allowing for southerly winds to return to our
region. In addition, mid and upper level ridging will develop over
the Central and Southern Plains in response to an amplifying West
Coast trough. This will translate to a gradual increase in
afternoon temperatures with minimal to no rain chances through the
end of the week.
Hernandez
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/
Light rain continues to fall across parts of North Texas with a
few storms ongoing across Central Texas. Expect the light rain to
continue for a few more hours before shifting south later this
morning. IFR will continue in North Texas through around 16z with
improvements expected thereafter.
Precipitation chances this afternoon will be minimal and mainly
confined to Central Texas. Given overall rain chances are low,
have opted not to include a mention of any precipitation in
KACT`s TAF. This will continue to be assessed through the morning.
Generally light northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to
persist through the duration of this TAF. Tonight, expect a return
of low ceilings with MVFR expected closer to 09z in North Texas.
Hernandez
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  67  82  65  85 /  40  10  10   5   5
Waco                80  68  82  66  86 /  40  10  20  10  10
Paris               74  62  81  59  82 /  30  10   5   0   0
Denton              78  64  83  61  85 /  30  10  10   5   5
McKinney            77  64  83  61  84 /  40  10   5   5   5
Dallas              79  67  83  66  86 /  40  10  10   5   5
Terrell             77  65  82  62  84 /  50  10  10   5   5
Corsicana           81  68  83  65  86 /  50  10  10   5   5
Temple              84  67  83  66  86 /  30  20  40  20  10
Mineral Wells       78  64  82  63  86 /  20  10  10  10  10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion