Carroll, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

681
FXUS63 KOAX 202008
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
308 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog again late tonight into Sunday morning.
- Off-and-on precipitation chances Sunday through Wednesday,
  with the best rain potential (40-70% PoPs) Monday night and
  Tuesday.
- A few strong to severe storms are possible Sunday evening, and
  again Monday afternoon into Monday night.
- Near-normal temperatures through much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Tonight through Sunday night:
A mid/upper-level low over northern ND this afternoon is
forecast to undergo deepening this period as it continues east
into northern MN. At the same time, a separate vorticity maximum
currently over WY will progress into the central Plains and
lower MO Valley on Sunday, contributing to overall trough
amplification from the upper MS Valley into Ozarks. At the
surface, light and variable winds observed across the region
this afternoon are expected to become light south tonight, ahead
of an area of low pressure, which will develop across southern
SD on Sunday.
The combination of light winds and a relatively moist boundary
layer are expected to contribute to fog formation again tonight
into Sunday morning, especially across portions of southeast NE
into southwest IA. The models suggest that a few warm-
advection-related showers and thunderstorms may develop late
tonight into Sunday across parts of southeast NE and southwest
IA, where 20-30% PoPs have been included. Additional
thunderstorm development is possible from late Sunday afternoon
through Sunday evening across portions of southeast SD,
northwest IA, and perhaps northeast NE, in the vicinity of the
above-mentioned surface low. It currently appears that the best
storm potential will remain to the northeast of our area, with
15-25% PoPs included in far northeast NE and parts of west-
central IA.
Model soundings in the vicinity of the surface low indicate the
presence of a modestly sheared and unstable environment, which
could support a few strong to severe storms, with the primary
hazards being hail and locally strong wind gusts. As mentioned
above, the best storm potential and associated severe risk may
ultimately remain to the northeast of our area.
Highs on Sunday may end up being a bit warmer than those today,
with readings in the mid/upper 70s.
Monday through Wednesday:
The 12z global models are in reasonably good agreement in
depicting mid-level trough amplification and subsequent low
formation across the northern and central Rockies on Monday.
That feature is then expected to gradually weaken as it
progresses from the central High Plains into the Ozarks on
Tuesday into Wednesday. The surface pattern is more muddled,
with indications that a cool front will settle south through the
mid MO Valley on Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Increased forcing for ascent associated with the approaching
mid-level system will support PoPs increasing from 15-25% on
Monday afternoon to 40-70% Monday night through Tuesday. The
PoPs subsequent decrease from north-to-south on Tuesday night
into Wednesday. A few strong to severe storms appear possible
Monday afternoon into Monday night, owing largely to the
presence of a steep-lapse-rate, moderately unstable air mass
developing within the pre-frontal warm sector.
Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s on Monday are forecast to cool
into the 70s on Tuesday and Wednesday, due to widespread clouds
and areas of rain.
Thursday and Friday:
A mid-level ridge is forecast to build east from the Rockies
into the Great Plains late next week, with drier and slightly
warmer weather expected.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
SCT-BKN clouds in the FL015-050 are being reported at many
locations as of 17z, with latest model data suggesting that
cloud heights will increase this afternoon. Outside of a brief
period of temporary MVFR ceilings early this afternoon (namely
at KOFK), prevailing VFR conditions will continue into tonight.
Winds will remain light through the forecast period, which will
support fog development toward daybreak Sunday morning,
especially at KOMA and KLNK.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion