Carrollton, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

839
FXUS64 KBMX 041841
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
141 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
- Dry conditions continue today as drought continues to worsen
   across Central Alabama.
- A weak disturbance in the Gulf will bring 20-30% rain chances
   Sunday through mid week, but chances of rainfall amounts
   exceeding 1 inch remain very low.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
Dry and rain free conditions will continue through tonight and
much of Sunday morning. High pressure is centered just off of the
VA coast extending WSW-ward into E Conus with ERLY flow into AL
today. Winds will continue to be a bit gusty at times with a
tighter surface pressure gradients around the ridge. While there
is a mix of clouds about, precip is not expected without any deep
moisture or focus. Overnight lows may be 4-8 degrees milder
tonight with winds expected to stay up some and generally not go
light to calm tonight as what is normally the case. 20-30% pops
finally make a return by Sunday afternoon as overall moisture
begins to slowly increase. Although a few showers and tstorms may
be noted (highest chances SRN counties), QPF amounts are not high
and will not make much of a dent in the ongoing drought. We will
have to just take every drop that we can get for now.
08
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
No major changes were made in the extended forecast. Guidance
continues with our pattern shift for Monday through mid week. We
will have a low to moderate chance of diurnally induced showers
and tstorms continuing as moisture gradually increases with a
disorganized weak low pressure for Mon/Tue. A surface front is
expected to move into the area on Wed and provide a little focus,
but overall moisture will be limited and rainfall amounts are
expected to be light. Temperatures will moderate upward for the
first part of the week ahead of the front with E-ESE meager
onshore flow. We can look forward to a slight cool down for next
weekend behind the front.
08
Previous long-term discussion:
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
As mentioned in the short term discussion, increased moisture from
the tropical disturbance will lead to low rain chances on Monday. By
Tuesday and Wednesday, a weak front will work into the area,
maintaining 20-30% rain chances, mainly across northern and central
counties. Ahead of the front, high temperatures are forecast to be
in the mid to upper 80s in most areas Monday through Wednesday. A
slight cool down is expected toward the end of the week, with
upper 70s to low 80s Thursday and Friday.
Overall, the dry period will remain in place, as the small rain
chances throughout the forecast period will do little to halt
emerging or worsening drought conditions across different parts of
the region. With little relief in sight from a rainfall standpoint,
drought and fire danger is likely to continue, if not worsen,
through next week.
12
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
VFR TAFs are expected this afternoon and tonight generally. MVFR
cigs are expected to develop/move NWD toward sunrise. Have a
mention for MGM/AUO starting 13z, but will not mention any further
NWD for now. Thinking we should get enough mixing and slow down
progression before any MVFR cigs get to the other sites. Tighter
gradients today and Sunday will allow for a few gusts at times
(15-22kt). Otherwise, sustained winds should be ERLY 6-12kts and
may stay up a little overnight.
08
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Central Alabama will remain rain free until Sunday. A 20-30% rain
chance will be in the forecast for Sunday and Monday. RH values will
drop into the 30s across our western areas this afternoon. A
moderate risk of significant fire potential is outlooked today
across the area, but min RHs and winds are not forecast to meet red
flag criteria. Outdoor burning remains highly discouraged due to
ongoing drought conditions. No wetting rainfall is expected in the
coming days. Any amounts will be too light to mitigate the
worsening drought.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     62  83  66  83 /   0  10  10  10
Anniston    65  81  67  81 /   0  20  10  10
Birmingham  67  83  69  84 /   0  20  10  20
Tuscaloosa  67  86  70  84 /   0  20  20  20
Calera      66  85  68  84 /   0  20  10  20
Auburn      67  80  67  82 /   0  30  10  10
Montgomery  69  83  69  85 /  10  20  20  20
Troy        67  81  67  84 /  10  40  20  20
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08/12
AVIATION...08

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion