Carson City, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

369
FXUS63 KGRR 251154
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
754 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Fog expected this morning
- Rain possible this afternoon
- Drier and warmer weather ahead
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
- Fog expected this morning
Latest satellite continues to show some mid to high level clouds
clearing to the north as low level clouds continue to thicken over
central and southern lower Michigan. While Low clouds and fog
remain likely this morning, there are a few caveats. The first is
the remaining winds. As of now, winds at many locations remain
around 5 kts. This will dampen fog development. The other issue is
the building high clouds from the south. While this is less of a
concern due to low clouds, it will still trap heat and reduce
temperatures from decreasing. Low clouds and any fog will linger
through the morning and slowly lifting and dissipating this
afternoon.
- Rain possible this afternoon
A large upper level low remains overhead an will slowly move
southward today. That low will shift to the south today. Latest
models have backed off on precipitation chances. The question
remains on amount of moisture and whether there is is enough
through the mid levels. Model soundings show quite a bit of dry
air which should reduce potential for rain. So can`t rule out
isolated showers but not expecting widespread rain.
- Drier and warmer weather ahead
While there remains low level moisture, and not strong enough
flow to scour it out, another round of low clouds and patchy fog
is expected Friday morning.
 However, a building ridge will bring warmer and drier air
through the weekend and into next week. Expect another break from
wet weather along with temps creeping back into the 80s. Max
temperatures are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal by
Sunday and through Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 726 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
IFR cigs continue to overspread the region and will dominate at
most TAF sites. MKG is on the edge of the boundary and has
improved vsbys and cigs. GRR, LAN, AZO, BTL and JXN will continue
with IFR or lower cigs through the morning. Conditions will slowly
improve with cigs lifting to MVFR then VFR between 15Z to 18Z.
 Drier forecast continues with only low chances for precip this
afternoon. Another chance for IFR conditions will be possible
tonight into Friday morning. Due to the building high there will
be a better chance for IFR and lower vsbys, though MVFR to IFR
cigs are possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 334 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Winds have decreased and lighter wind and waves are expected
Friday into the weekend.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...Ceru
MARINE...Ceru

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion