Caselton, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

919
FXUS65 KVEF 270547
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1047 PM PDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Chances of showers and thunderstorms are in this weekend`s
  forecast for southern Nevada, southeastern California, and
  northwestern Arizona.
* Moisture gradually scours out of the region through the work week,
  with a fall-like pattern bringing below-normal temperatures and
  breezy afternoons.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Through Thursday
A cutoff upper level low, currently centered north of Twentynine
Palms, will be the main driver of weather this weekend. Plentiful
moisture along with forcing from the low has already set off
thunderstorm activity early this morning over northwestern Arizona.
One storm produced a gust of 67 mph at 6 AM PDT in Nye County. This
activity should ramp up this afternoon with the introduction of
surface heating, particularly in regions along and south of
Interstate 15. However, this early morning activity may hinder
development later today due to leftover cloud cover and exhausted
atmospheric instability. CAMs have also backed off, pushing the more
active period into the early afternoon rather than late morning.
Heavy rainfall, gusty outflow winds, and small hail are all
possibilities with the strongest storms. The position of the low
becomes favorable for moisture advection on Saturday, sending PWATs
into the 0.75 to 1.50 inch range. The result will be more widespread
POPs and an increased concern for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.
The primary areas to watch for flash flooding are southern San
Bernardino and southern Mohave counties.
The upper level low will track east through Arizona on Sunday,
leading to a reduction in moisture and precipitation potential. The
greatest chances appear to be in northwestern Arizona and far
eastern Nevada, where forcing from the weakening low and lingering
moisture may kick off storms in the afternoon. Dry southwesterly
flow will take its place through the workweek as an upper level
trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. There is some uncertainty
in whether remnant moisture from Hurricane Narda will make it into
the flow, but if it does, POPs linger into Monday and Tuesday.
Outside of precipitation, lower heights aloft allow for below
average temperatures through most of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light
winds will continue through Saturday morning, with winds expected
to shift to the east-southeast around 8KT through the afternoon.
Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected
during the afternoon and evening, with erratic gusty outflow
winds, frequent lightning, and MVFR/IFR conditions in heavy rain
will accompany storms that develop across the area. However,
precise timing of storms impacting the terminal remains in
question, though the most likely window will be late afternoon and
early evening. By mid to late evening, the thunderstorm threat is
expected to diminish, with lingering showers and light and
variable winds thereafter. Outside of storms, VFR conditions
prevail with SCT-BKN ceilings around 10-12kft.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Showers and
thunderstorms have diminished this evening, with light winds
through Saturday morning. Another round of storms is expected
across northwestern Arizona, southern Nevada, and portions of
southeastern California during the afternoon and evening, possibly
by late morning across the Lower Colorado River Valley. Erratic
gusty winds, heavy rain, and frequent lightning are concerns, with
blowing dust also possible along outflow boundaries. While a
majority of thunderstorm activity diminishing by late evening,
lingering showers are expected into the night across southern
Nevada and northwestern Arizona. Away from storms, winds will
generally be around 8KT or less, shifting to the southeast by
Saturday afternoon. In the Owens Valley, dry conditions are
expected with gusty up-valley winds late afternoon through the end
of the period. VFR conditions with ceilings around 10-12kft will
prevail.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Meltzer
AVIATION...Phillipson
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion