Caselton, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

125
FXUS65 KVEF 222148
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
248 PM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* The unsettled pattern continues as precipitation chances linger
  each day this week due to anomalous moisture and periodic
  disturbances moving across the region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Southwesterly flow aloft continues over the region, with a cutoff
low still churning off of the southern California Coast and a
ridge anchored over northern Mexico. This persistent southwesterly
flow is maintaining a fetch of subtropical moisture, resulting in
anomalously high precipitable water values on the order of
100-150% of normal. While periodic fluctuations in the amount of
moisture are expected this week, with no mechanism to scour it
out, daily thunderstorm chances exist through the upcoming
weekend. A lull is expected today through Tuesday in the wake of
the shortwave that brought showers and isolated thunderstorms
south and east of I-15 last night, with an uptick in precipitation
chances across the eastern Sierra on Wednesday as the
aforementioned low off of the California Coast finally moves
inland and translates eastward. Ascent ahead of this feature will
facilitate increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms
across the area during the latter half of the work week (30-50%),
though there is still some discrepancy among ensemble members
regarding its precise track and how much instability will
accompany the system as it gradually weakens. Regardless, the
pattern looks to remain unsettled this week, with the anomalous
moisture keeping highs near to slightly below normal for late
September.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Light
easterly winds this afternoon will veer southwest this evening,
remaining light overnight before shifting to the northeast by mid
to late morning Tuesday. Wind speeds will increase to around
10-12KT, persisting through sunset. Intermittent gusts to around
15KT can be expected, though timing remains uncertain. Otherwise,
VFR conditions prevail, with clearing skies through tonight.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Winds through tonight
will generally follow typical diurnal directional patterns, with
wind speeds around 8KT or less. Tuesday mid to late morning, winds
shift to the north and northeast across southern Nevada,
northwestern Arizona, and across the Colorado River Valley, with
wind speeds increasing to around 10-12KT, and stronger through
the Colorado River Valley due to topographic effects. Gusts there
could reach 20-25KT before winds diminish late in the forecast
period. Across the western Mojave Desert and Owens Valley, gusty
diurnal winds are expected, with easterly gusts to 20-25KT and
southerly up-valley gusts to around 20KT, respectively. Otherwise,
VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Phillipson
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion