Chapel Hill, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

527
FXUS62 KRAH 190657
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
250 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area through Saturday. A weak
back-door cold front will slide south through the area late Saturday
and Saturday night. This will be followed by more high pressure
Sunday into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1255 AM Friday...
Patchy early morning dense fog possible, especially N-E.
Continued dry and very warm today.
Patchy dense ground fog may develop especially in the north and east
prior to daybreak. Otherwise, expect a mostly sunny and very warm
day with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Skies will continue to be
mainly clear tonight with lows in the lower to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1255 AM Friday...
Continued dry.
Very warm again Saturday. A bit cooler behind a weak backdoor cold
front Saturday night with low stratus possible late Saturday night.
Expect a mostly sunny and very warm day again Saturday. Dry soils
and dry air aloft will allow temperatures to likely overachieve
guidance. Expect highs again in the mid to upper 80s (a few lower
90s over the Sandhills). The backdoor front should arrive dry with
little moisture, instability, upper support for anything more than a
10 to 14 percent POP for an isolated shower. Expect some weak CAA
behind the front Saturday night. However, this may be offset by a
low stratus deck that is expected to arrive behind the front
after midnight (north and east). Lows mainly in the 60-65 range.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 250 AM Friday...
* Above Normal Temperatures Will Persist
* Rain Chances Return Next Week, Though Uncertainty Exists
Behind a cold front moving south through the area on Saturday, dry
north east flow will dominate for at least the first half of next
week as a strong surface high migrates across New England. The
northeasterly flow will be enhanced by an inverted trough offshore
and possibly a coastal low as a weak short wave drifts across the
area. The low would remain well offshore but we could see some
additional low clouds Sunday morning as a result.  Otherwise, the
forecast is dry through Wednesday as temperature slowly moderate
back into the mid upper 80s.  Another back door is possible by
Thursday, although there are significant model differences in the
overall upper level flow pattern. The flow does become a little more
favorable for rain with troughing over the central US and southwest
flow across the southeast US. However, the ECMWF depicts a deep
upper low cutting off over the mid-Mississippi River Valley with a
more significant chance of rain headed into next weekend as the low
shifts east, while the GFS favors broader cyclonic flow with
embedded short waves. Both scenarios favor rain chances by Thursday
and Friday, but the details are quite uncertain.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Friday...
TAF period: There will be IFR to LIFR ground fog and low stratus
for several hours at KRWI and KFAY through 13z; otherwise, a brief
period of IFR fog is possible at KRDU around 11z or 12z. Then,
high confidence in VFR conditions today and tonight.
Outlook: Patchy ground fog is again possible Saturday morning.
A backdoor cold front will move through on Saturday night. Expect
VFR conditions Saturday, becoming IFR for CIGS late Saturday
night and early Sunday. Then, a return to MVFR to VFR CIGS
Sunday. Generally VFR conditions expected Monday into Tuesday.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...BLS
AVIATION...RAH

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion