Chapman, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

318
FXUS64 KSHV 110427
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1127 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
- Above normal temperatures are here to stay with some areas
   possibly approaching triple digit afternoon temperatures today
   and Friday.
- Rain chances still non-existent through the end of the week,
   into the upcoming weekend and through at least the middle part
   of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
As expected, higher dewpoints infiltrated the entire Four State
Region on Wednesday with afternoon dewpoints some 5 to 10 degrees
higher than those our region experienced on Tuesday. Combine that
with ambient temperatures some 2 to 6 degrees higher Wednesday
compared to Tuesday, proving that Summer has returned to our
region and it appears like it`s here to stay for a while.
An Ohio Valley longwave Upper trough will begin ejecting out into
the Appalachians Today and this will allow for upper ridging that
had been centered across the Tx Hill Country into the lee of the
Rockies to move eastward into the Great Plains. While the center
of this upper ridge axis will be to our west, across much of KS,
OK and TX, we will definitely be more under the influence of this
feature vs the departing longwave trough and temperatures
therefore have nowhere to go but up. Stayed with persistence
concerning temperatures Today and again on Friday which results
in a one to two degree increase today and again on Friday. Thus,
mostly middle 90s should prevail for high temperatures Today and
more upper 90s on the map for Friday and would not be surprised
to see Shreveport or Texarkana squeak out 100 degrees by Friday.
While afternoon dewpoints will not be excessive, they will be high
enough for a smattering of triple digit heat indices across our
region, if not today then especially by Friday but Heat Advisory
criteria will likely not be met.
We rinse and repeat with the upper level features for the upcoming
weekend and therefore, persistence will be the best forecast tool
for temperatures this weekend as well with middle to upper 90s a
pretty good bet for both Saturday into Sunday.
Medium range progs for next week look pretty similar unfortunately
when it comes to the positioning and strength of the upper ridge
firmly anchored across our region. There may be some hope by late
next week of a slight eastward migration to the ridge axis which
would allow a weak shortwave to move into the Middle Red River
Valley. This pattern would favor at least some widely scattered
precipitation chances to our northwest half late next week but
until that time, dry and hot conditions will prevail.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Generally clear skies prevail this evening, with the exception of
FEW-SCT mid and high level clouds advecting SE from Oklahoma.
These clouds will thin into the overnight as they continue south
and pose no threat to the airfields. With increasing low level
moisture, patchy fog may develop towards sunrise. Have introduced
MVFR vsbys to MLU, LFK, and ELD where probabilities of vsby
reduction lies between 30 and 40 percent. Fog will erode by 15z
and shortly give way to an afternoon cumulus field around 5-6kft.
Isolated convection may develop east of MLU and ELD but confidence
is high enough to leave mention of VCTS out of TAFs right now.
Winds becoming calm overnight under high pressure influence,
becoming variable Thursday 5kts or less.
Kovacik
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  69  95  71  97 /   0  10   0   0
DEQ  64  92  67  94 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  68  96  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  66  95  68  96 /   0  10   0   0
TYR  68  92  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  67  94  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  68  94  69  95 /   0  10   0   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...23

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion