Charlson, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

322
FXUS63 KBIS 221133
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
633 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog possible til mid-morning.
- Above average temperatures and dry conditions through the
  week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
The forecast remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Model guidance remains bearish in regard to impactful fog
formation this morning. RAP model forecast soundings are having
a difficult time saturating near the surface, while HRRR
forecast soundings barely do so, and even then, and mainly for
the James River Valley and far southwest. That said, with light
and variable winds, along with clear skies, a good radiational
cooling set-up is present. As such, patchy radiational fog will
probably develop closer to sunrise for at least some of the
area. Most of this fog will likely be shallow and confined
mostly to fields and low-lying areas. Should any thicker fog
develop, the most favored areas would be in the aforementioned
James River Valley or the far southwest.
Once any fog clears out this morning, expect mostly sunny skies
and light winds today. The exception is western ND where weak
troughing may bring a few clouds, along with breezy winds as the
surface pressure gradient tightens. For tonight, mostly clear
skies are expected, although with steady light northwesterly
winds and lower dewpoints progged; fog development seems
unlikely, especially for western ND. Should any fog development
occur, it would most likely be in the James River Valley where
dewpoints remain a bit higher and winds more light and variable
through the night.
All in all, the forecast for this week is very quiet. A weak
ridging pattern looks to prevail through most of the workweek
resulting in above average, yet fairly steady high temperatures
in the 70s at most locations, most days, with a few readings in
the low 80s. Similarly, lows will be mostly in the upper 40s to
low 50s. Though with light winds and often clear skies forecast,
wouldn`t be surprised if lows don`t wind up a bit cooler at
times. Models are also in fair agreement that a trough will pass
through at the end of the week and into this weekend. At this
time, the main "impact" would be temperatures closer to average.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Shallow fog has developed in parts of the James River Valley.
Based on the interstate webcams near Jamestown and satellite
imagery, fog coverage seems to be even less than at this time
yesterday. Nevertheless, this fog has still has been causing
occasional drops in visibility down to about 1SM at KJMS.
Despite lower coverage of this shallow fog, peak fog growth time
is usually between now and about a half hour after sunrise.
Therefore, went with a TEMPO of 1SM and MIFG until 14Z to cover
what is most likely occurring at KJMS this morning. Patchy fog
is also possible elsewhere, though most areas will remain VFR.
Once any fog dissipates, VFR ceilings and visibility are
expected through the period.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Telken
AVIATION...Telken

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion