Chaseley, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

981
FXUS63 KBIS 220529
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog late tonight into Monday morning.
- Above average temperatures through the week.
- Dry conditions through the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
The forecast remains on track.
UPDATE
Issued at 920 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Quiet weather continues here this evening. Most of the hi-res
models no longer produce low visibilities due to fog, so the
forecast will continue to say `patchy fog`.
UPDATE
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Quiet weather this evening, so limited adjustments are needed.
We are still expecting fog to form again overnight.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Current surface analysis places low along the
Saskatchewan/Alberta border with trough dropping down into
central/eastern Montana. Upper level analysis places ridge
stretching from the Four Corners region northward into eastern
Montana, while a compact low spins over northern Minnesota.
Over our area, quiet weather continues with a modest southerly
wind ahead of the aforementioned trough. Skies are mostly
clear, but some afternoon fair weather cumulus have developed
over eastern parts of our area in the modest cyclonic flow on
the backside of the aforementioned upper low.
Quiet weather is expected tonight, but winds will start to shift
towards the northwest very late tonight as the aforementioned
surface trough pushes east. Ahead of this, winds will be quite
light with clear skies and ample low level moisture so expect
patchy fog to once again be a possibility, lingering into
Monday morning.
On Monday, trough meanders east before stalling out over
central North Dakota. Winds will become northwest behind this
feature, possibly becoming a bit breezy over the far west.
Otherwise, a quiet day is on tap with skies remaining mainly
clear.
Through the remainder of the week, we end up in perpetually dry
pattern with temperatures continuing to be above average, mainly
in the 70s to lower 80s, with NBM continuing to show high
confidence in the temperature forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Patchy fog may develop again tonight and into Tuesday morning.
However, model signals aren`t the strongest and any saturation
seems near the surface. So for the most part, if fog does
develop, most likely it will be shallow radiational/field fog.
The main areas models hint at developing a bit thicker fog is in
the far southwest and the James River Valley. As such, used
VCFG at KJMS tonight and into early Tuesday morning, otherwise
left fog mentions out of TAFs. Other than any potential fog
development, VFR ceilings and visibility are expected through
the period.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...Telken

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion