Chemehuevi, California Weather Forecast Discussion

337
FXUS65 KVEF 251151
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
451 AM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Precipitation potential exists Thursday through this weekend as
  anomalous moisture interacts with an upper level disturbance.
  Details and weather impacts continue to remain low confidence.
* Moisture lingers into early next week which could allow for
  continued precipitation chances, however low confidence in next
  week`s forecast at this time.
.DISCUSSION...Through Tuesday.
Current satellite imagery shows an upper level low off the central
California coast producing thunderstorms in the San Joaquin Valley.
The low is expected to track east into Nevada on Thursday, then
south into southern California/Arizona on Friday. PWATs in the area
are in the .5 to 1 inch range, which combined with favorable
dynamics associated with the low should kick off showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon. However, confidence is still low in
the details as it depends on the strength, speed, and placement of
the low, along with available moisture and cloud cover that could
inhibit afternoon convection. For Thursday, the best chances for
precipitation are in northern Inyo County, the southern Great Basin,
and northern Mohave County where difluence aloft should help with
shower and thunderstorm development. Clearing in the afternoon may
increase instability and help with more robust storm development,
with gusty outflow winds and heavy downpours as potential hazards.
For Friday, the greatest precipitation chances are pushed into
northwestern Arizona as the low moves south and east, taking the
greatest moisture with it.
The upper level low tracks east across the lower Colorado River
through on Saturday and Arizona on Sunday. Ensembles indicate a
boost in moisture at this time as the low reaches a favorable
position to tap into tropical moisture. POPs should increase for
most locations on both Saturday and Sunday. However, confidence in
details is low at this time and finer details should become more
apparent over the next few days. Confidence is also low in what will
happen Monday onwards as this will depend on how fast the low exits
and how much moisture will linger over the region. Outside of
precipitation, lower heights should help maintain near to below
average temperatures over the weekend and next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light
and variable winds will give way to northeasterly light
northeasterly winds later this morning. These northeastern winds
will veer around to the southeast, through the late morning and
early afternoon hours. Breezy southwesterly winds will pick up
around mid-afternoon with gusts to around 20 knots. Theses winds
will likely vary between southeasterly and southwesterly with
sustained speeds of 10 knots or greater before finally settling in
from the southwest. These breezier southwesterly winds will
continue into the evening hours before wind gusts drop off and
sustained speeds drop below 10 knots. VFR conditions will prevail
with FEW to SCT mid-level clouds around 10 to 12 kft expected to
develop in the higher terrain surrounding the valley. HiRes
guidance shows that there is a 20 to 30% chance that showers and
thunderstorms may develop in the higher terrain surrounding the
valley this afternoon. Should these thunderstorms materialize
there is a chance that the terminal would be impacted by erratic
gusty outflow winds. However, both confidence and probabilities
are too low to put it in the TAF at this time.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the southern Great Basin, Inyo
County, northwest Arizona, and northeastern Clark County today.
Erratic gusty winds, lightning, rain, and lower CIGS will be
possible with any storms that develop. Currently, BIH is the only
TAF site with mention of VCTS and TSRA this afternoon and evening
as probabilities and confidence are too low at other TAF sites at
this time. Outside of any convective influence, 20 to 25 knot
southwesterly wind gusts will pick up across southern Nevada and
the Colorado River Valley later this morning/early this afternoon.
Winds in the Owens Valley will follow typical daily patterns with
breezier southeasterly winds picking up this afternoon. These
southeasterly winds will continue through mid- afternoon when
winds will abruptly swing around to the north- northwest and pick
up with the passage of a front. These north- northwesterly winds
will be strongest as the front pushes through, decreasing in
magnitude with time. Gusty westerly winds are expected to continue
through the TAF period across the western Mojave Desert.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Nickerson
AVIATION...Stessman
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion