Choudrant, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

490
FXUS64 KSHV 301816
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
116 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
- Above normal temperatures will continue over the next 7 days,
   although widespread heat-related impacts are not expected.
- Isolated thunderstorms on Thursday will carry a threat for
   brief periods of heavy rainfall.
- Rain and thunderstorm chances may increase early next week and
   if so could pose a threat for heavy rain.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
The upper level pattern this afternoon features a ridge of high
pressure centered roughly over the Midwest into the Ohio Valley.
Lower pressure is located downstream of this feature where two
tropical systems are noted off the East Coast. A much more robust,
longer wave trough is located upstream from the ridge near the
West Coast and into the Intermountain West, with a closed low
noted within the wave off the coast of British Columbia. In the
lower levels closer to the surface, an expansive area of high
pressure centered over Ontario and the southern end of Hudson Bay
extends influence across the majority of the US east of the
Rockies, with a frontal boundary draped across the Great Lakes
into New England, marking the leading edge of a cooler, Canadian
air mass.
The Four State Region remains under the influence of the surface
high pressure just described while also generally remaining
influenced by the Midwest ridge in the upper levels. Water vapor
imagery does denote a very loosely organized, weak trough of low
pressure over the Southern Plains. Weak PVA on the downstream side
of this trough has led to enough forcing to make for mostly cloudy
skies across the region, namely in the form of mid and high level
clouds. Composite radar does show some returns in association with
these clouds. With the absence of low level moisture, this will
remain virga. Looking then for a quiet night across the forecast
area, with clouds clearing to the east through the evening and
yielding low temperatures in the low to mid 60s.
For Wednesday, the weak Southern Plains upper trough will slide
under the Midwest Ridge near the Gulf Coast, becoming even more ill-
defined. With high pressure influence near the surface and aloft and
clearer skies (outside of the regular afternoon cu field) will make
for a slightly warmer day, with temperatures topping off in the
upper 80s across SE OK and SW AR and low 90s generally elsewhere.
Low 60s dewpoints will keep heat indices down and therefore do not
expect an overly humid day. As the weak, ill-defined trough moves
east through the day, it is expected to merge with weak troughing
along the east coast where combined there could be some shower and
isolated thunderstorm development just to the east of the CWA.
By Thursday, the upper level ridge will shift east into the OH
Valley, leaving the local area under lower pressure aloft. Surface
high pressure will also shift east, opening the region up to SE flow
off the Gulf. This will increase dewpoints and allow the
atmosphere to destabilize enough to make for the chance for
showers and thunderstorms. There remains some uncertainty in the
axis of best moisture but currently thinking suggests that
precipitation will be possible from about the I-49 corridor and
east. QPF amounts will be minimal, however, any thunderstorm that
develops will produce localized but brief heavy rainfall.
Thereafter, the local area remains under the same synoptic
influence, with high pressure in the low levels and weak low
pressure in the vicinity aloft. Most models, including the NBM, keep
the area dry Friday through the weekend, suggesting that the surface
ridge will remain strong enough to shunt convection, however, do
feel isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances should not
be completely ruled out at this point in time, especially given
abundant moisture over the Gulf.
By early next week, ensemble guidance portrays a longwave trough
west of the Rockies, positively tilted towards the northern
Plains and northern MS Valley, with ridging east. While this would
suggest a hot and dry forecast for the Four State Region, seeing
enough evidence in the long range deterministic guidance of the
lingering low near the LA/MS Coast to suggest there may actually
be better rain chances at the end of the period. Many times these
subtle, smaller scale features are not visible in ensemble mean
solutions. Depending on where this low meanders and perhaps stall,
it may try to take on some forms of tropical characteristics but
that is all speculation at this point and given its proximity to
the coast, do not currently see this being a impactful system.
But, nevertheless, will need to monitor the evolution of this
system in the coming days.
One last thing to mention is that confidence is quite high in above
normal temperatures continuing into early October. While heat
indices will remain below 100 degrees, it`s something to remain
cognizant of.
Kovacik
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
For the ArkLaTex terminals, a weak upper low over NE TX has SCT to
NUM mid and high clouds with the back edge over E TX. Farther W,
there is a widespread CU field in the sunshine which is nearing KTYR
and may spread to near KTXK/KSHV before sundown with clearing for
the overnight. Patchy BR for a site or two possible, but only in the
KLFK TAF attm. Our SFC winds continue light N/NE5KT for most through
this cycle, but near calm overnight and then veering more to E/SE
over E TX Thursday and working over into our I-49 corridor Friday.
/24/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  91  69  91 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  66  92  69  90 /   0   0   0  20
DEQ  60  88  63  89 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  64  91  67  91 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  62  90  64  89 /   0   0   0  20
TYR  64  89  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  62  90  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  65  92  65  93 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...24

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion