Cimarron, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

610
FXUS63 KDDC 272201
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
501 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog is possible around sunrise Sunday morning.
- Southwest Kansas will remain dry through at least next
  Saturday October 4th.
- Temperatures will remain seasonably pleasant and comfortable,
  with afternoons mainly in the 80s, and sunrise temperatures in
  the 50s and 60s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
This afternoon`s water vapor imagery and RAP objective analysis
fields show a large cutoff gyre spinning essentially aimlessly
over the Desert Southwest. The main polar jet stream was way off
to the north extending from British Columbia across the Canadian
Prairies. A weak shortwave disturbance embedded in the longer
wave zonal jet stream was responsible for pushing a weak cold
front south across the Great Plains, reaching southwest Kansas
earlier this morning. Clear air WSR-88D echoes from KDDC showed
the frontal zone stalled out between Liberal and Dodge City. The
front will continue to slowly dissolve by tonight with remnants
of the front lifting back to the north. The weak convergence
axis along the front is expected to be the focus for some patchyto
areas of fog development early in the morning Sunday. We have
added in patchy fog for mainly west central Kansas, north of the
Arkansas River -- aligned with the weak signal in the HREF 1/4
mile visibility field (shown as a general east to west axis of
patchy 20-35% probabilities in that field).
Should fog develop around sunrise, it will dissipate a couple
hours after sunrise, giving way to another pleasant day, if not
a touch on the warm side, with afternoon temperatures topping
out mid to upper 80s across all of western Kansas. The MSLP
gradient will tighten enough out west to result in south winds
increasing to 15 to 20 mph out toward the Colorado line (lighter
south wind the farther east you go toward central/south central
KS).
Looking ahead, the largely zonal polar jet stream pattern up
north will undergo amplification through the week with lowering
heights out along the West Coast. This gradual pattern change
will eventually lead to the eventual demise of the earlier
discussed large upper low over the Southwest. As western Kansas
remains well away from any jet stream winds aloft, the resulting
sensible weather will continue to be quite benign with no
mention of precipitation in the forecast all the way through Day
7 (next Saturday, October 4th).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 501 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Excellent flying weather will continue to prevail through this
TAF period, with VFR/SKC, varying amounts of scattered cirrus,
and light winds. Patchy radiation fog is possible around
12z Sun, but confidence at any airport is too low to mention
any visibility restrictions in this set of TAFs. After 18z Sun,
south winds will increase, gusting 22-25 kts.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Umscheid
AVIATION...Turner

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion