Clements, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

712
FXUS63 KICT 170704
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
204 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Periodic scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms early
  this morning through Thursday night areawide.
- Potential for a continued off-and-on active pattern this
  weekend through early to mid next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
PRECIPITATION:
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A deep upper trough approaching
slowly from the west will support off-and-on scattered to numerous
showers/thunderstorms across the region today through Thursday
night. Thinking activity will be most widespread/numerous this
morning over central Kansas, and again tonight through Thursday
evening areawide. While a handful of marginally severe thunderstorms
are possible throughout this time period (especially during the
mid/late afternoon through evening hours), most activity should
remain below severe levels. Locally heavy rainfall is possible as
well, which could support isolated flooding concerns. Model
consensus supports widespread rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
inches through Thursday night, with localized 1-2+ inch amounts
possible.
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...While there remains
quite a bit of uncertainty, deterministic consensus supports a
continued off-and-on active pattern this weekend through early to
mid next week, as various shortwaves progress over the region within
progressive west-northwest flow aloft. Stay tuned as we refine
forecast details in the coming days.
TEMPERATURES:
Seasonably warm temperatures look to persist today, with forecast
highs in the low 80s to low 90s, warmest over far southeast Kansas.
By Thursday, increased precipitation chances and decreasing
atmospheric thickness will support a slight cool down, with many
locations in the 70s to low 80s for daytime highs. By the weekend,
temperatures should get back to seasonal normals in the 80s, as both
thickness and southerly flow increase across Mid-America.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Current VFR conditions across the area with increasing chances
for showers/storms as convection builds and moves east across
the region. Possible MVFR conditions are expected during the
morning hours for central Kansas locations with the threat
shifting into south-central Kansas for mid-morning into early
afternoon. Lower confidence for the end of the forecast period
as there is little model agreement in coverage and intensity of
activity. On and off rain and thunderstorm chances will extend
beyond the forecast time frame.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...ADK
AVIATION...AMD

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion