Clint, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

517
FXUS64 KEPZ 240511
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1111 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1039 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Thunderstorms will be more isolated on Wednesday, mainly
   focused over the Gila Region and parts of Sierra County. Storms
   will have a difficult time drifting into the lowlands.
- More widespread precipitation enters the forecast Thursday
   through early next week, enhancing the risk for flash flooding.
- The pattern supports a risk for some strong to severe
   thunderstorms late in the week as well.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1055 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Quite an active day across northern portions of the CWA, with a
series of severe thunderstorms rolling across Sierra and Otero
Counties. Tomorrow doesn`t look quite as active, as some drier and
slightly warmer air aloft sneaks in, but deep layer shear still
supports some organized storms. They`ll start over the Gila again,
and drift southeast, following enhanced low level moisture and
instability laid out near a stalled out backdoor cold front, but
the HREF suggests they`ll sputter and dissipate just before
reaching Deming and Las Cruces.
Speaking of the backdoor cold front, that`ll be pushing through El
Paso right around dawn, with some gusts around 35-40 mph possible
in the west side downslope locations. Temperatures will get
whittled back about 10 degrees off Tuesday`s highs along the Rio
Grande, and as much as 15 degrees out east in Hudspeth County. The
front will stall out and weaken near the Continental Divide, where
highs will only be a degree or two cooler than Tuesday.
Upper level ridging over Arizona on Wednesday will shift towards
the Rio Grande Thursday. But moisture undercutting the backside of
the ridge and a bit of a mid-level thermal trough right under the
ridge axis will help promote an uptick in thunderstorms across SW
New Mexico.
The uptick in thunderstorm coverage will continue through the
weekend. The ridge stalls out but weakens on Friday, with cooler
air aloft continuing to filter in from the west as a cutoff low
carves out over southern California. The overall pattern favors
upper level divergence across southern New Mexico, overlaying a
plume of "leftover" monsoon moisture in the mid-levels. The GFS
also suggests SW flow in the 850-700 mb layer will pull lower
level moisture into the area from Sonora. Increasing deep-layer
shear and 500 mb temps dropping to around -10C point to the
potential for severe thunderstorms as well, as early as Friday in
SW New Mexico.
Things become more uncertain heading into Sunday as some tropical
moisture may try to get advected up ahead of the cutoff low.
That`s where the devil`s in the details and the forecast
confidence drops, as it`s also around the same time the cutoff low
will begin to lift northeastward.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 PM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A few isolated convective showers will be around the ELP area
through about 08-09Z, diminishing towards dawn. A backdoor cold
front will arrive around 10-12Z, but with just a slight increase
in wind at ELP. Otherwise, expect the usual post-frontal enhanced
winds at DMN through early afternoon, with light/variable winds at
LRU. Isolated convection over the Gila Region will develop after
21-22Z, and drift SE, but the probability of making it to DMN or
LRU looks low.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1049 AM MDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Low fire danger this week with below normal ERCs and high soil
moisture. Min RH 30-40% with light west winds 10 to 15 mph. Vent
rates will be Good today and Tuesday afternoon with transport to the
east. Scattered showers and thunderstorms across central New Mexico,
best chances for LNF.
Cold front arrives from the northeast Wednesday morning, shifting
winds to the NE and cooling temperatures back to seasonal. Storm
chances continue for southwest New Mexico, especially for GNF on
Thursday.
Uptick in storm chances Friday into next weekend as coverage becomes
more scattered area wide. Storms will be capable of new lightning
starts over forests, but large fire growth is not expected due to
light winds and wetness.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  70  83  66  88 /  20  10  20  10
Sierra Blanca            62  76  56  82 /  20  20  20  20
Las Cruces               64  82  61  84 /  20  10  20  10
Alamogordo               61  79  58  84 /  50  10  10  10
Cloudcroft               42  60  41  63 /  60  10  10  10
Truth or Consequences    59  81  59  82 /  30  20  20  30
Silver City              57  81  55  79 /  10  30  40  50
Deming                   65  85  62  87 /  10  10  20  20
Lordsburg                64  87  63  86 /  10  20  20  40
West El Paso Metro       69  82  66  85 /  20  10  20  10
Dell City                63  78  57  85 /  20  10  10   0
Fort Hancock             69  83  63  88 /  20  20  20  20
Loma Linda               60  74  57  79 /  20  10  20  10
Fabens                   67  83  63  87 /  20  10  20  10
Santa Teresa             66  82  63  85 /  20  10  20  10
White Sands HQ           65  81  62  85 /  20  10  20  10
Jornada Range            61  83  60  83 /  30  10  20  20
Hatch                    62  86  60  86 /  20  20  20  30
Columbus                 66  86  63  87 /  20  10  20  20
Orogrande                61  79  58  82 /  20  10  20  10
Mayhill                  48  65  45  74 /  50  10  10  10
Mescalero                48  70  45  74 /  50  10   0  10
Timberon                 47  69  45  72 /  30  10  10  10
Winston                  48  76  48  77 /  20  20  30  40
Hillsboro                57  80  56  83 /  20  40  50  50
Spaceport                58  83  58  82 /  30  10  20  20
Lake Roberts             51  79  50  81 /  10  40  50  60
Hurley                   58  82  57  81 /  10  30  40  50
Cliff                    59  88  58  87 /  10  20  30  40
Mule Creek               56  86  55  84 /  10  20  20  40
Faywood                  60  80  57  80 /  10  30  40  40
Animas                   64  88  63  87 /  10  20  30  40
Hachita                  64  86  61  85 /  10  20  20  20
Antelope Wells           63  85  60  86 /  10  20  20  30
Cloverdale               62  84  60  82 /  10  20  30  60
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...25-Hardiman

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion