Clintondale Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

520
FXUS61 KCTP 071833
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
233 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Beneficial rainfall expands west to east through tonight
  before ending from NW to SE early Wednesday morning
* Breezy and noticeably cooler tomorrow feeling more like Fall;
  start of another prolonged dry stretch into the weekend
* Nighttime frost/freeze potential increasing mid to late week
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
18Z radar trends show rain showers making more of an eastward
push into the western Alleghenies early this afternoon. Wave of
low pressure and PW max near KY/IN/OH seems to have robbed the
best moisture return so far into CPA via southwest LLJ ahead of
primary cold front crossing Lake Erie. All indications from
hires model data indicate a continued uptick/west-to-east
expansion of shower activity through the evening hours with
beneficial rainfall continuing overnight into early Wednesday
morning. Much drier/increasing northerly flow behind the cold
front will end rainfall from NW to SE across most of CPA by
12Z/8AM Wed. Min temps trend 10-15 degrees lower across the NW
mtns with lows in the mid 40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Turing breezy and noticeably cooler tomorrow with mix of sun
and clouds as 1030+mb high pressure migrates southeastward over
the Great Lakes. The airmass associated with this seasonably
strong anticyclone will be the coldest so far this season and
bring (after many days of above normal daytime warmth) the
first prolonged stretch of seasonably cooler Fall weather to
CPA. This stretch should also include the first widespread frost
and freeze with the highest risk Thursday night into early
Friday morning. Frost and freeze headlines will likely be needed
in the next 1-2 forecast cycles. Max temps on Thursday are
expected to be ~5 degrees below the historical average for early
October.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure stays pretty much locked in over the region in
stagnant blocking pattern with closed/sfc low offshore the OBX.
This will translate into an extended dry stretch at least
through Saturday. Easterly flow could begin to influence the
area by the end of the weekend with various model solutions even
suggesting some potential for rain across the eastern part of
the forecast area as the low tracks northward off the Mid
Atlantic coast. Daytime highs trend near to above the seasonal
average with the largest departures (+5-10F) across northwest
PA.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not seeing any signals to expect any sub-VFR conditions with
that current batch of light showers, into late afternoon west/this
evening east. Rain will gradually overspread the area, reaching
the eastern airfields (IPT/MDT/LNS) closer to the 20Z Tue to
00Z Wed timeframe with moderate (50-60%) confidence on timing.
Recent model guidance outlines IFR as the floor at all
airfields overnight and early Wednesday morning. There will
remain a non-zero chance of LIFR conditions at all airfields in
the 06-12Z Wednesday timeframe.
Outlook...
Thu...AM fog then VFR.
Fri-Sun...AM fog, otherwise clear with VFR conditions.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Banghoff/Bauco
AVIATION...Gartner/NPB

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion