093 FXUS64 KMAF 111702 AFDMAFArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1202 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
- Low to moderate (20%-40%) probability of showers/storms over western higher terrain of W TX into SE NM plains beginning this weekend and continuing into next week.
- Slight cooling trend in temperatures this weekend into next week due to increasing cloud cover and shower/storm chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday afternoon) Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
An upper level ridge continues to sit over the Great Plains and will continue to bring above normal heat for both today and Friday. Highs will reach into the low to mid 90s for most with upper 80s in the higher terrain. Compared to today, Friday will feature temperatures about a degree or two lower, but overall conditions will be the same. For tonight, lows dip into the 60s once again with the mountains settling into the 50s. Rain chances will remain near zero areawide for the short term.
-Stickney
&&
.LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Heading into Saturday, the pattern begins to shift as the ridge that has brought the warmth for this week will be pushed to the east as a deep trough moves into the Western US. Temperatures to end the week and into this weekend will gradually drop to near normal with most in the upper 80s to low 90s. Rain chances make a return as the southern edge of the upper trough skims across the northern and western peripheries of the CWA. Low(20-40%) rain chances will be seen through the weekend for areas west of Midland/Odessa with less than 20% chances to the east as the trough rolls through the Rockies and into the Plains. By Monday, the trough departs to the northeast and rain chances fall back to under 10% and remain that low into the middle of next week. Temperatures look to sit around normal near 90F during the day and 60s overnight.
-Stickney
&&
.AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
VFR conditions and no rain expected throughout TAF period. Southeast winds at terminals up to 15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots for terminals across Stockton Plateau and Upper Trans Pecos into SE NM plains forecast 19Z-23Z today into 04Z-06Z Friday, then continuing gusty southeast winds into 07Z-10Z Friday for terminals across Stockton Plateau, Upper Trans Pecos and SE NM plains. Southeast winds again become gusty at or above 15-20 knots 14Z-16Z into end of period for terminals across Stockton Plateau into Permian Basin and Lea County.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 66 92 68 91 / 0 0 0 10 Carlsbad 64 92 67 89 / 0 0 10 50 Dryden 68 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 66 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 20 Guadalupe Pass 62 84 64 81 / 0 0 10 50 Hobbs 61 88 65 86 / 0 0 0 40 Marfa 56 85 59 83 / 0 0 0 40 Midland Intl Airport 66 92 69 90 / 0 0 0 10 Odessa 66 90 69 89 / 0 0 0 10 Wink 65 91 68 89 / 0 0 0 30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. &&
$$
SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....93 AVIATION...94
NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion