Cochran, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

330
FXUS62 KFFC 121734
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
134 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1249 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Key Message
- Dry and uneventful weather will continue in north and central
   Georgia through Saturday.
For Friday & Saturday:
Georgia will find itself on the backside of a weak upper level
trough during this period. This will lead to weak upper level
subsidence, and a warm layer between 600 and 400 mb that will hinder
afternoon convection today and Saturday. A limited amount of
available moisture (surface dewpoints in the upper 50s and PW values
near 1 inch) will also make the environment challenging for
convective development. Thus dry weather is expected for 99% of north
and central Georgia through Saturday. The 1% could occur in isolated
parts of the north Georgia mountains between 4 PM and 9 PM today,
where differential heating over the higher terrain could lead to
shallow convection and a brief light rain shower. Lightning is not
expected and most areas even in the mountains will remain dry.
Little to no fluctuation in daily temperature trends is anticipated
through Saturday. Afternoon highs will reach into the 80s while
morning lows will dip into the low 60s. This will lead to
temperatures that are 2 to 6 degrees above seasonal averages in
north Georgia and near seasonal averages in central Georgia.
Albright
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1249 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Key Messages:
- Dry pattern continues with no meaningful precipitation
   expected through the start of next week. Next chance of
   precipitation after mid next week.
- Highs in the mid 80s and even low 90s through much of the period.
Weather pattern remains relatively unchanged through the long term
period. Upper level troughing slowly drifts eastward with near
surface high pressure remaining entrenched across the southeast.
Conditions remain dry through the period with PWATs below the 50th
percentile and limited to no mid/upper level shortwave energy
through at least Tuesday. Temperatures through the weekend and into
early next week will be in the upper 80s and low 90s.
Models have surprisingly converged on a solution for the next weeks
trough/wave-break with the collapse of the upper level block-like
pattern. The solution, thankfully, appears to be that of the cutoff
upper level low over the southeast (see last night`s discussion for
further information). This will mean the oppressive heat will likely
remain to the west and temperatures will remain elevated but not
significantly outside the norm. Expect highs through mid next week
in the mid to upper 80s for much of the area. That said, this upper
level low may be our next chance at bringing moisture back to the
area with even some light PoPs of 10-15% in the eastern CWA
Wednesday onward. The big decider on our precipitation chances
through next week will be on the track of the cut-off upper level
low. The two solutions are as follows: 1.) the upper level low
encounters stronger forcing via the subtropical jet and progresses
eastward taking moisture and upper level support with it or 2.) the
upper low gets trapped under the wavebreak and regresses westward
underneath the polar ridge dragging moisture out of the Atlantic.
These can be thought of as a dry and wet solutions respectively with
PoPs resulting almost entirely from solutions with a regressive
upper level low.
No matter the solution though, PWATs are not expected much above the
50th percentile and any precipitation will likely be on the lighter
end for mid to late next week.
SM
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Surface ridge nosing into the region from the northeast and will
be in control of this cycle. Winds will remain out of the east
through the period and light. Given the low RH values in the
layer, clouds will be on the few side and confined to the
daytime.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS
Stellman
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          83  60  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         86  64  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     79  57  79  56 /  10  10   0   0
Cartersville    88  62  88  61 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        89  64  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     84  62  84  61 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           86  62  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            88  61  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  86  61  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         87  63  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...stellman
LONG TERM....VS
AVIATION...stellman

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion