Como, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

761
FXUS63 KABR 301822
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
122 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Abnormally warm temperatures (highs in the 80s, 15-25 degrees
above normal) will be in place through the rest of the work week.
- Gusty conditions will persist through this week. Southerly wind
gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected through Wednesday before
decreasing to 20 to 25 mph for the rest of the week.
- Pattern change for the weekend, with cooler temperatures and peak
chances for moisture (40-60%) Saturday night into Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
As of 1 PM CDT, temperatures around the area are in the upper 70s
to low 80s with winds out of the south between 15 and 20 mph,
gusting to around 30 mph.
We remain in southwesterly flow tonight and through Wednesday night
when a slight wave in the flow turns our winds to the west for
Thursday. After this we are at the top of a ridge from a high
pressure center over NM/TX that will keep our upper level flow out
of the west Friday. Saturday, a low starts to move east from the
Pacific Coast and our upper level winds once again turn to the
southwest and we are on the downwind side of a trough. The trough
will move across the area Sunday. The 850mb low looks to move across
the region Saturday, although portions of central SD may feel the
impacts of the cooler air and cloud cover late Friday. Once this low
moves out, the EC shows another upper level disturbance forming on
the east side of the Rockies and moving towards our area Monday. The
GFS and Canadian deterministic models are not including this at this
time. Going into Tuesday we have westerly upper level flow.
The next several days are expected to be dry with highs 15-25
degrees above normal and lows also 15-25 degrees above normal. Some
records for high lows are still in danger of being broken at
numerous locations around the forecast area. Humidity is keeping RH
values above Red Flag criteria again today. Friday going into the
weekend, we have increased chances for precipitation as that low and
cold front move through. At the moment, Saturday evening into Sunday
morning has the highest PoPs at around 40-60%. NBM is showing 20-40%
chance of more than 1 inch in 72 hours ending Monday morning. Winds
on Wednesday will continue to gust to 25-30 mph with isolated 35 mph
gusts. This will mainly be east of the Missouri River.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Gusts of 30+ mph
will be possible through the overnight hours. A low-level jet
overnight will also create some low-level wind shear, particularly
at KABR and KMBG.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...13

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion