Concho Valley, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

512
FXUS65 KFGZ 031134
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
434 AM MST Fri Oct 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Mild and windy weather is expected today ahead of an
incoming weather system. Scattered thunderstorms will develop
across eastern Arizona this afternoon and evening. Dry and cooler
weather arrives for the weekend into early next week. A chance for
showers and thunderstorms will return late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Arizona will see increasing southwesterly flow today
in response to an upper level low moving inland near San Francisco
this morning. The low will move into southern Nevada tonight with
the base of the trough sweeping through Arizona on Saturday. The
main impacts from this system will be increased southwest winds
today, scattered thunderstorms across eastern Arizona this
afternoon and evening, all followed by cooler temperatures this
weekend. The cooler air aloft will combine with a slight increase
in moisture to result in scattered thunderstorm activity mainly
across Apache county today. Although instability will be marginal,
enhanced wind shear from the approaching trough will bring the
potential for a few strong thunderstorms. There is a marginal risk
for severe thunderstorms that extends into the four corners
region. Peak wind gusts today will range from 40 to near 50 mph,
with the strongest winds focused along and north of I-40, where a
Wind Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM MST.
Winds will decrease this evening, but remain breezy into Saturday.
Stronger wind gusts up to 45 mph are still expected on Saturday
across eastern Arizona. Drier air arrives tonight which will bring
an end to any rain/storm chances. Drier and cool weather is in
store this weekend in the wake of the trough passage. Daytime
temperatures will decrease to about 5 degrees below normal with
the coldest overnight lows yet this season forecast for Sunday
morning. High mountain locations are likely to drop below
freezing.
Mostly dry weather with gradually increasing temperatures is
forecast next week as the influence of high pressure returns.
Model guidance suggests a gradual increase in moisture across
eastern Arizona midweek, moving westward later in the week, which
will bring returning chances for showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION...Friday 03/12Z through Saturday 04/12Z...An approaching
weather system will result in gusty SW winds today 15-25 kts
gusting 30-40 kts, strongest from KFLG - KSOW northward. Scattered
TSRA along the New Mexico border this afternoon/evening with a low
chance of strong outflow winds. Winds decrease after 03Z but
remain 10-20 kts overnight with local downslope gusts to 30 kts.
LLWS developing near KFLG from 04-12Z.
OUTLOOK...Saturday 04/12Z through Monday 06/12Z...VFR conditions
are expected. SW winds 15-25 kts gusting to 40 kts persist on
Saturday east of KINW, with winds elsewhere decreasing and
shifting to the W. Winds return to S to SW Sunday at 10-20 kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Expect southwest winds to
increase to 20-30 mph gusting to 45 mph today in advance of an
approaching weather system. Scattered thunderstorms are also
expected across eastern Arizona, which could produce gusty outflow
winds. Elevated southwest winds will persist across eastern
Arizona on Saturday, decreasing and shifting to the west
elsewhere. Expect drier and cooler weather Saturday.
Sunday through Tuesday..Mostly dry weather is expected with
cooler than normal temperatures through Monday. Expect south to
southwest winds each day around 10-20 mph. A slight chance for
thunderstorms returns to eastern Arizona by Tuesday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ this morning to 7 PM MST
/8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ004-006-007-009-012-013-015-039-
040.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion