Copan, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

051
FXUS64 KTSA 180122
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
822 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 820 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Rain and storm chances/coverage ramp up Thursday and Friday
   with the approach of an upper trough and associated front.
   There will be some uptick in severe weather potential, as well
   as heavy rainfall potential.
- After an expected lull in the active weather to start the
   weekend, rain/storm chances increase to finish the weekend.
- While the details still remain fairly uncertain, a pattern
   change is expected next week which should push a stronger front
   into the area. Higher rain/storm chances will accompany the
   front, with a trend toward quieter/drier weather later in the
   week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 820 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
A weak shortwave trough is helping to kick off a few showers
across northeast Oklahoma  this evening, with greater storm
activity to the west of the forecast area. In general storm
activity will trend down the next few hours with the loss of
daytime heating. Much of the overnight hours will be quiet, with
lows in the 60s to near 70. A few locations may see patchy fog if
clouds can sufficiently clear. The best chance for this will be in
northwest Arkansas, especially for areas that saw significant
rainfall earlier. As the next upper level trough closes in,
showers and storms may begin to reinvigorate towards dawn Thursday
morning, particularly across northeast Oklahoma.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Deterministic models and most ensemble cluster solutions suggest
an uptick in rain/storm coverage Thursday night after a brief lull
during the evening as the upper trough moves across. Locally heavy
rainfall will be the main threat. The focus for rain/storms
shifts east over into AR for Friday. After what looks like a
relative lull in the activity in the wake of this wave to start
the weekend, models have a wave sliding across the region in the
NW flow aloft over the weekend, again increasing rain/storm
chances.
A pattern change is advertised by the models going into next week,
but the details remain highly uncertain. A strong cross-Pacific
jet will punch into northwest NOAM to start the week, but the
models are trending toward taking most of this energy up into
Canada, while developing split-flow blocking to the south over the
CONUS. An upper low developing on the nose of the weaker southern
stream jet energy is expected to evolve somewhere over the central
CONUS next week. The GFS has been consistent suggesting this will
all occur north of our area, while the EC suggests the low will
dive south over or near the area. This has big implications on
what will do here. There is no clear winner in ensemble cluster
data, suggesting higher than normal uncertainty. Thus, this
forecast will stick with the model blend, showing higher
rain/storm chances with a front early in the week, trending
quieter/drier as the week progresses. While temps will trend
cooler than they have been of late, expect closer to average temps
rather than a significant fall cool down.
Lacy
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
A few lingering showers and storms across the area will wind down
the next few hours, with the probability of any terminals being
impacted too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Overnight
tonight ceilings will develop, but most at or above 8 kft. Rain is
not expected for most areas, but there is a chance for a few
showers and storms near daybreak across northeast OK. Additional
showers and storms could develop for any area during the afternoon
hours. Some further reductions in ceilings and visibility could
occur with these storms. Winds will be light and variable for
long periods of time, but will favor the south to southeast
tonight and west to northwest tomorrow behind a weak boundary.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  90  66  85 /  20  50  60  30
FSM   70  92  69  87 /  10  30  50  50
MLC   67  92  66  86 /  10  50  60  50
BVO   63  87  61  84 /  30  50  60  20
FYV   63  88  63  83 /  10  50  60  50
BYV   66  88  64  82 /  10  60  60  60
MKO   68  91  65  84 /  10  50  60  40
MIO   66  89  64  82 /  30  50  70  40
F10   67  91  64  85 /  10  50  60  40
HHW   68  93  66  87 /   0  30  50  40
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...06

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion