Cornfields, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

505
FXUS65 KFGZ 140428
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
928 PM MST Sat Sep 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Cooler temperatures, lighter winds, and mostly dry
conditions are expected today and tomorrow. Expect a gradual
warming trend through much of next week, with low storm chances
limited to the White Mountains area. Storm chances may spread over
much of the area by late week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Rest of today and tomorrow...The fairly strong
September trough that has been centered over CA-NV the past few
days is finally propagating across northern AZ. This has pushed
out the lingering moisture and instability in far eastern AZ, and
we are seeing mostly dry conditions across our forecast area. The
passing trough is also bringing lighter winds and seasonably cool
temperatures. These conditions will allow for efficient radiative
cooling overnight, and some high elevation sites will see low
temperatures in the 30s and even locally below freezing. Dry
conditions with light winds will persist through Sunday, but
daytime temperatures will begin to recover as 500mb heights build.
Monday through Wednesday... Heights continue to build and
temperatures return to near/slightly above average. Moisture once
again begins to surge northward before being stalled as a weak
ridge forms over CA-NV and induces a more northwesterly flow.
Mostly dry conditions will still persist in northern AZ, but a
10-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms will creep into the
White Mountains and eastern Mogollon Rim each day.
Thursday and beyond... The weak ridge will quickly give way as
another trough brings southwesterly flow to AZ. Ensemble guidance is
in agreement that moisture will increase through the end of this
week, but not in agreement by how much. By Friday, the GEFS 25th-
75th percentile spread in PW at Flagstaff is 0.76-1.03 inches. The
current forecast is that our next round of more widespread showers
and thunderstorms will arrive by the end of next week into the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...Sunday 14/06Z through Monday 15/06Z...VFR conditions
expected, no precipitation Sunday. Winds light and variable or
terrain driven overnight, becoming S-SW 5-15kts, gusts to 20kts on
Sunday afternoon.
OUTLOOK...Monday 15/06Z through Wednesday 17/06Z...VFR conditions
expected, no precipitation on Monday. May see a return of isolated
-SHRA/-TSRA to the White Mountains Tuesday. Winds SW 5-10 kts
 daytime Monday and Tuesday, light and variable or terrain driven
 overnight periods.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Expect dry and sunny weather
with near average temperatures. Afternoon winds are southwest 5 to
15 mph with minimum RH from 10-20% both days.
Tuesday through Thursday...Mostly dry with seasonal daytime
temperatures. Minimum RH is generally 10-20%, locally higher at high
elevation sites. Daytime winds are southwest through west 5 to 15
mph. A 10-30% chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in the
White Mountains Tuesday and Wednesday expands westward to include
areas along and south of the Mogollon Rim Thursday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...RR
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion