Corral De Tierra, California Weather Forecast Discussion

456
FXUS66 KMTR 221235
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
535 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 321 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- Warming trend continues through Tuesday, areas of Moderate and
   Major HeatRisk
- Weak offshore flow Monday through Tuesday in the higher terrain
- Rain showers and isolated thunderstorm chances return Tuesday
   and lingering through midweek
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 321 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
(Today and tonight)
Not much going on in the short term forecast as upper level ridging
builds into the region. This will lead to the marine layer
compressing some more, likely keeping stratus confined to coastal
areas and perhaps draining into a portion of the Salinas Valley.
This should quickly mix out by mid to late morning, leading to a
warm fall day. Temperatures today will rise into the up into the mid
80s to mid 90s for interior locations, while those closer to the
coast range from the mid 60s to mid 70s. With ridging holding in
place, a warmer night is on tap with temperatures ranging from the
upper 50s to mid 60s for interior valleys and the coast. For those
in higher elevations, low temperatures span the 60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 321 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Tuesday will be the warmest day this week, with widespread Moderate
HeatRisk across the Bay Area and smattering portions of the Central
Coast. The latest guidance actually brings Major HeatRisk to the
East Bay counties and even leaks into Santa Clara County. In
addition to that, the cutoff low that looms off west of Baja CA
begins to drift north. The following questions remain with this
system... how fast does it arrive and where does go. The latest
guidance has it tracking towards the Central Coast and tracking into
the Central Valley by mid to late week. Moisture will surge ahead of
it, potentially bringing showers as early as Tuesday afternoon but
more likely occuring late Tuesday into Wednesday. Thunderstorms will
be possible, currently favoring the Central Coast but perhaps
tracking all the way up into the North Bay. Storms should be
sufficient rain makers as PWATs range 1.0-1.4 inches, meaning dry
lightning should be limited.
As the low meanders towards the east on Thursday, conditions begin
to dry out. High temperatures return to near normal for this time of
year and continue into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
LIFR CIGs and pockets of fog are affecting the coast and the
Monterey Bay. Winds are light across the region and remain so into
the late morning and early afternoon. CIGs begin to erode in the
late morning leading to widespread VFR as winds build and become
moderate to breezy. Winds reduce into the mid evening and into the
night. CIGs return to the coast into the late night, affecting
HAF.
Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Expect light winds
through the late morning with breezier winds for the afternoon and
gusts peaking around 20 kts. These winds reduce into the night,
becoming light.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR CIGs, pockets of fog, and light winds
last into the late morning. Expect VFR and moderate west winds for
the afternoon. Winds reduce the evening and early night with cloud
cover building in the bay itself, but these clouds don`t look to
move inland until shortly beyond the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Breezy to gusty winds linger in the northern outer waters. This
will translate to steep seas, especially for waters near and north
of Point Reyes. Northwesterly swell will continue through the
entire period with wave heights gradually easing. Waters south of
Point Pinos will be prone to 12 to 15 second period southerly
swell, though wave heights will average between 2 and 3 feet.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock
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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion