Crab Orchard Estates, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

347
FXUS63 KPAH 210458
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1158 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures continue through Monday then
  pleasantly cooler the remainder of the week. Highs will dip
  back down into the 70s.
- Transitioning to a much welcomed wetter pattern this week with
  daily rain chances starting from tomorrow. By the weekend we
  could see a grand total of 2-3" of rain on the high end.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Updated the aviation section for the 06Z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Satellite this afternoon showing a cu field trying to develop along
with some high level clouds streaming in from the southwest. On
radar several storms have formed outside the CWA to the northwest
associated with a lobe of vorticity that is swinging through this
afternoon and could touch off more scattered showers and storms
across northwest portions of the area. While we are not outlooked
for anything but general thunder, a few storms could be on the
stronger side and produce some gusty winds as they collapse. Chances
for scattered showers and storms continue tonight and ramp up into
tomorrow morning as the parent shortwave aloft lifts northward and a
second one pulls up behind it.
Above average temperatures are expected to continue through Monday
then a pleasant cool down is expected. Rain chances pick up even
more Sunday night through Monday as the aforementioned second
shortwave aloft comes through. Temperatures begin to cool down by
Tuesday as the pattern shifts to one that is wetter and more active
for the remainder of the week. Highs come down into the 70s for the
remainder of the week and into the weekend. Chances for rain
continue every day through Friday afternoon with PWATs around 1.5".
This means that on the high end we could see a grand total around 2-
3" of rain by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Areas which received rain and find brief clearing can develop
lower vsbys overnight into the early morning. Southwesterly
winds around 6-10kts are forecast tomorrow. Showers, and
possibly a few storms, may track through SEMO and Western
Kentucky through the morning. Additional shower/storm
development is possible later in the afternoon but confidence on
location is limited. A broad area of showers and storms
approaches the northwestern edge of the Quad State at the end of
the TAF period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...ATL

NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion