Creole, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

706
FXUS64 KLCH 211736
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1236 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected across the region each
  afternoon today through Wednesday providing some relief to the
  abnormally dry conditions across the region.
- A cold front will push through the region Thursday with drier
  and somewhat cooler air moving across the region Friday into
  next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
An upper level trough continues to deepen across the Mississippi
Gulf Coast while broad surface ridging can be noted up to 1km AGL
while weakening. Scattered convective thundershowers are likely
areawide through the afternoon hours before waining around dusk.
That being said, not all backyards will see a soaking rainfall and
many cells should continue forward propagation. Few cells, however,
could still dump some heavy localized amounts that may result in
ponding along roads / low lying areas. Many locations will still
share quite a bit of sunshine with highs topping out in the upper
80`s to lower 90`s. Few showers may redevelop overnight along the
coast.
Monday, the favorable lift axis of the shortwave will shift a little
further east yielding less favorable chances across interior
portions of the forecast area to receive rainfall. Still believe
isolated to scattered showers / storms are possible with newer hi-
res guidance gravitating more coverage along the Atchafalaya Basin.
Similar setup can be expected again Tuesday with highs trending
further in the lower 90`s across the region. Do note areas with
midday rainfalls may have highs lowered a bit depending on the
cirrus blow over (thunderstorm anvils) which have have a tendency of
cooling a few locations from their expected highs.
Kowalski / 30
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
A shortwave trough is forecast to deepen a surface low pressure over
the Colorado Rockies this week into the Missouri Valley by Wednesday
morning. Some deterministic guidance amplifies the local jet max
toward the TX / LA coast. Under a warm humid, southerly surface
advection, this setup will create a baroclinic environment that
would be very supportive of organized showers and thunderstorms.
That being said our partners at the Storm Prediction Center have not
analyzed there to be sufficient elements for a severe weather. Would
encourage eyes stay tuned to this range of the forecast as changes
with synoptic patterns are always likely in the Fall.
PoPs increase throughout Wednesday ahead of the actual frontal
boundary lagging behind until Thursday. A notable difference in
daytime highs will be observed during the afternoons. Could still
have some lingering activity shifting the southeast offshore but
that is likely to diminish by the evening with clearing skies.
Overnight low temperatures will be cooler than the first half of
the week by several degrees--around low to mid 60`s with the
exception of the coast. Low end isolated chances of showers remain
through the end of the forecast period, but confidence hedges
toward a drier continental airmass
Kowalski / 30
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Scattered TSRA expected to persist through next several hours as
cells move inland. Periodic degradations to IFR conditions
possible. However, majority of terminals will prevail toward VFR
conditions outside of TS. Weather will calm during early evening
hours as atmosphere becomes worked through. In the meanwhile,
outflow boundaries may send strong variable gusts well outside of
TS.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the coastal
waters as well as the coastal lakes and bays each day through
Wednesday as an upper level disturbance moves across the region.
Outside of storms, onshore flow of 10-15 knots will prevail. A cold
front will push through the coastal waters early Thursday turning
winds offshore through the end of the week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the region
each day through Wednesday as an upper level disturbance moves
across the region. Outside of storms, light southeasterly winds will
prevail with minimum RH values ranging from 50-70% each afternoon.
The increased rainfall this week should improve the abnormally dry
conditions that have developed across the region over the last
couple of weeks.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  91  68  93 /  10  30   0  30
LCH  74  89  75  90 /  20  50  10  50
LFT  72  89  72  90 /  10  50  10  40
BPT  74  88  75  90 /  30  50  10  50
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion