Cresbard, South Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

215
FXUS63 KABR 090930
AFDABR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
430 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly elevated smoke will remain across the area today. Some of
this smoke will near the surface with visibility reductions possible
mainly west of the Missouri River in the morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
A broad area of low pressure coupled with some weak shortwave
activity moving through the upper flow is producing showers and
thunderstorms across the region this morning. This system is
expected to exit by afternoon, though precipitation is likely to
taper off sooner than that. Generally dry conditions are then
expected through Wednesday afternoon as upper ridging builds in to
the Plains.
Elevated wildfire smoke remains over the region today, but near
surface smoke in parts of central SD should sink south. Temperatures
are expected to be near to slightly above normal both today and
Wednesday with warmest highs from Pierre south. Winds increase out
of the southeast on Wednesday with gusts to 30 to 35 mph west river
as lee side troughing sets up along the Rockies. Before winds
increase, though, can`t rule out some morning fog in the east with
the latent llm hanging around.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Wednesday evening the axis of the upper level ridge is over our area
and the ridge continues to move east. Models are still showing an
upper level low moving in from the west, although now it is more
late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening which is a little
later than previous model runs. The EC and Canadian still have
similar outcomes up until early Sunday morning, and the GFS is still
holding onto the idea of the low staying off to our west over MT.
Sunday afternoon, the Canadian starts to agree more with the GFS and
moves the low northwest and into MT whereas the EC keeps the low
moving east to southeast. Following this, the EC moves into an omega
block pattern and the Canadian and GFS have us in southwesterly flow
aloft with a low off to our southwest.
The main precipitation event looks to start Friday evening ahead of
the low, mainly west river. 40-60% PoPs start to spread east during
the day Saturday and then decrease to around 20-30% Sunday before
dying off overnight Sunday and into Monday morning. NBM 24 hour QPF
ending Sunday morning has chances of more than a quarter of an inch
at 30-60% mainly west of the James River, less east of the James.
Elevated smoke looks to continue at least over northeastern SD at
leave overnight Wednesday. Highs through the period are expected to
remain 5-15 degrees above average with Friday as the warmest day.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG
Primarily VFR conditions, though smoke and possibly fog may reduce
visibility at KPIR/KMBG, with lower confidence for the other
terminals. There are some very light showers and weak storms this
evening/early morning as well, with bases up around 10kft. The
last note with regard to aviation is that smoke will be thickest
aloft for KMBG/KPIR, up around 6-10kft.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...07

NWS ABR Office Area Forecast Discussion