Cuchara Valley, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

094
FXUS65 KPUB 221127
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
527 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm today, with primary cold front pushing through during the
  early evening hours.
- Most precip today will occur along and north of US50 this
  evening.
- A few strong/marginally svr storms over far eastern plains mainly
  this evening.
- Accumulating snow is expected at mtn tops tonight, mainly
  north of US50.
- Cooler pattern in store for Tuesday and Wednesday, with
  meaningful rain and snow chances chances likely across much of
  the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Today...
Overall, another warm day is anticipated in advance of a potent
short wave which is fcst to push into NW CO late today. The plains
will remain mainly dry through today, with the exception of EL Paso
county likely seeings some storms by late afternoon. The primary
front should cross over the Palmer Divide shortly after 6 pm this
evening per latest hi res guidance.
For the hi terrain, isold to sctd storms will initiate by early
afternoon and progress east through the afternoon hours.
Tonight...
Overall best chance of storms all areas will be along and north of
US50, with most of the activity occurring during the evening hours.
With instability limited over the I-25 corridor, storms are not
expected to become strong to severe, however farther east where
somewhat better instability is anticipated (500-1000 J), we may see
a few strong to severe storms will be possible.
Given the potency of the short wave, Scattered showers and storms
will likely last through the night over the region, with a majority
of the activity occurring north and along US50. /Hodanish
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 252 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Tomorrow..
A secondary cold push across our plains on Tuesday will keep breezy
north winds and precipitation chances over much of the area
throughout the day tomorrow, along with well below normal
temperatures. Daytime highs look to remain firmly in the 60s for all
of the I-25 corridor and our mountain valleys, with 50s over the
Palmer Divide and low 70s over our far eastern plains. With
temperatures this cool, embedded thunderstorm activity will be very
minimal, though there will still be slight chances for thunder on
Tuesday, mainly over our southern mountains, southern I-25 corridor,
and portions of the eastern plains. Precipitation is more likely to
fall as steady rainfall over our plains and mountain valleys, with
extensive cloud cover remaining over the region throughout the day.
Snow will also continue, mainly above 10,000ft. Accumulations of 4
to 6 inches at the most will be possible, mainly for the very top of
Pikes Peak, along with the highest peaks of the central mountains.
Tuesday Night and Wednesday.
We begin to clear out slowly from west to east throughout the
evening and overnight hours of Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
speed of this clearing will determine the extent of cooling for
Tuesday night, especially over our mountain valleys. If we clear
quickly, frost, and possibly even sub-freezing temperatures, will be
possible for the San Luis Valley Tuesday night. Models pull the
positively tilted trough axis across our forecast area by the early
morning hours of Wednesday, leaving us in northerly flow aloft for
the remainder of the day. Daytime highs look to remain around 8 to
10 degrees cooler than normal for Wednesday, though with ridging
beginning to build in from the west and skies beginning to clear, we
will be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday. Temperatures are likely
to top out in the mid to upper 60s over El Paso County and our
mountain adjacent plains, with low to mid 70s for the rest of the
plains. Showers and thunderstorms will be sparse, but still possible
over and near our mountains through the afternoon hours. We`ll see
another of round frost possibilities over the San Luis Valley
Wednesday night into Thursday morning as well.
Thursday Onwards..
Near normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions look to return
for Thursday and Friday as ridging moves back over the region.
Models bring a low onshore over California through this period,
though they struggle to agree on its path from Thursday onwards.
There also seems to be some measure of disagreement on the
possibility that we could see some moisture under the ridge and ahead
of the low, at least for our mountains, by this weekend, as said low
moves inland eventually. Ensemble guidance does suggest that pwats
may be above seasonal normals by this weekend, at least for our
mountains.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 526 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
For KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected through the rest of
this morning and for much of this afternoon as well. Winds will
be light and mainly diurnally driven through much of the daytime
hours, with middle and upper-level cloud cover increasing
throughout the day. A cold front is expected to push across
both stations around the 00Z timeframe this evening, bringing
in gusty north winds and rain/thunderstorm chances through the
rest of the evening hours. We`ll see chances for brief
reductions to MVFR reductions to ceilings and visibilities with
heavier showers throughout that timeframe as well, though
confidence in MVFR occurrence was too low to include in either
TAF at this time.
FOR KALS..VFR conditions are expected to persist throughout the TAF
period. Winds will be mainly light and westerly. Showers will be
possible in the vicinity through much of the afternoon and evening
hours, generally from 21Z until 04Z. The most likely timeframe for
any showers or storms to move on station will be from 23Z until 02Z,
though confidence was too low (less than 30%) to include
precipitation chances on station at this point.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...EHR

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion