Dalton Pass, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

211
FXUS65 KABQ 041939
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
139 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1214 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
- South to southwest wind gusts to 35 to 50 mph will create
  hazardous crosswinds for high-profile vehicles this afternoon,
  especially in northeastern New Mexico.
- An end to the growing season is expected for portions of the
  Upper Rio Grande Valley tonight into Sunday morning, as low
  temperatures dip below freezing, especially near the Colorado
  border.
- Isolated showers and storms will develop across north-central to
  northeastern New Mexico through this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 1214 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
An unseasonably strong upper low over UT is starting to fill in
and shift toward the central Rockies this afternoon. A very stout
gradient aloft has been in place, especially over northwestern NM
with a lee-side surface cyclone near the CO front range providing
a healthy low layer gradient in eastern NM. Winds have started to
surge up in speed, and true-to-form the strongest gusts are in
northeastern areas with a few sites already verifying the recently
expanded Wind Advisory. Showers and storms have been spotty and
confined to the northwest to north central zones where the best
upper forcing is. A few may struggle to expand southward toward
I-40 as instability increases, but these should likely only
produce a few brief sprinkles. Showers and storms will shift to
northeastern NM early this evening, reducing even more in coverage
and exiting before midnight. Winds at the surface will also
decrease quickly as the boundary layer decouples around sunset.
This along with clear skies will give way to optimal radiational
cooling, and cooler overnight lows. The Freeze Watch was upgraded
to a Warning for the upper Rio Grande valley (NMZ216). Taos proper
may not quite reach the freezing mark of 32 F, but areas near the
CO border will drop into the upper 20`s. Light low layer winds
are forecast around dawn Sunday in most of western and central NM.
On Sunday, the remnants of the central Rockies trough will have
raced into Canada with a couple of additional upstream vort lobes
sliding into its wake. One shortwave will dip into ID with another
paralleling the west coast and dropping offshore of CA by late
afternoon Sunday. This will carve out a longwave trough feature
for the western ConUS, leaving southwesterlies aloft over NM.
Speeds aloft will average about 15-25 kt in the 500-700 mb layer
Sunday, higher than weeks past, but considerably less than today`s
speeds. This will keep light to moderately breezy conditions in
the afternoon forecast for Sunday while near to slightly above
normal temperatures and mostly clear skies prevail.
A moist backdoor front will slide into northeastern NM Sunday
night, potentially spawning a few showers and thunderstorms before
dawn Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1214 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
By the daytime Monday, the aforementioned vort lobe offshore of CA
will be slowing and weakening with lighter southwesterlies
persisting over NM with a few weak ripples and shortwaves
embedded. The morning`s backdoor front will begin to retreat
northward, but enough surface/moisture convergence will continue
to initiate showers and storms over eastern zones through Monday
afternoon and evening.
The front will get set back in motion to the west and south late
Monday night into Tuesday, pushing more surface convergence and
low layer moisture advection toward the central mountain chain,
however this second push appears to be weaker than previous day`s
depictions from forecast models. POPs may have to be trimmed back
in western zones Tuesday afternoon if this model trend continues
with subsequent runs, but going into Tuesday night it does appear
moisture will advance closer to the Continental Divide.
This will set the stage for scattered showers and storms between
the Divide and the central mountain chain Wednesday afternoon. By
this time the offshore CA low gets lost inland with the
southwesterlies, and high pressure will start to swell over the
Gulf coast.
Into Thursday, Friday and Saturday, the upper high will start to
reach northwest toward NM while a deep Pacific Northwest low drops
closer to the west coast. Meanwhile tropical cyclone activity is
still depicted in many forms among model solutions in the far
eastern Pacific. A lot of variance among the placement and
interaction of each of these features is keeping low confidence in
forecast details for Thursday and Friday, but the consensus is
for low rain potential areawide, possibly favoring northwestern
zones.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
An upper low over Utah is creating windy conditions over New
Mexico. Gusts approaching 35 kt have prompted an Airport Weather
Warning for KABQ, and sites in northeastern NM such as KRTN, KLVS,
and KCAO will likely reach 45 kt. A few weak showers and fleeting
thunderstorms will favor north central New Mexico this afternoon
before dwindling over northeastern areas this evening. Winds will
quickly decrease at the surface around sunset, but will stay
strong aloft over eastern New Mexico, keeping low level wind shear
going there through mid morning Sunday. Lighter breezes, mostly
clear skies, and VFR conditions will prevail during the day
Sunday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1214 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Windy conditions are ongoing due to an unseasonably stout upper
low over UT. These stronger winds are coupled with some lower
humidity values (15-20%) in western NM where the dry slot is
working into the state, but fuel moisture and high Energy Release
Components should preclude any fire weather concerns through
sunset when winds will subside. Cooler temperatures tonight will
lead to a few freezes and the seasonal onset of fuel curing for a
few north central and northwestern zones tonight and Sunday
morning. Dry and much more tranquil conditions will follow during
the day on Sunday. Going into the first half of the work week,
moist backdoor frontal pushes will arrive from the northeast,
keeping temperatures seasonable and scattered showers and storms
in the forecast. Storms will begin in eastern zones Monday,
pushing toward central ones Tuesday, and will then make their way
toward the Continental Divide by Wednesday. Wetting rainfall
opportunities still appear to be scattered, if not spotty and
sparse before a potentially drier end of the work week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  40  71  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  31  69  32  73 /   0   0   0  10
Cuba............................  37  71  40  73 /   0   0   0  10
Gallup..........................  34  70  34  75 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  34  69  38  74 /   0   0   0   5
Grants..........................  35  74  37  77 /   0   0   0  10
Quemado.........................  36  74  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  45  76  48  75 /   0   0   0  10
Datil...........................  37  73  41  74 /   0   0   0  10
Reserve.........................  39  76  40  79 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  47  81  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  30  63  34  66 /   5   0   0  10
Los Alamos......................  44  69  46  70 /  10   0   0  20
Pecos...........................  41  71  42  70 /  20   0   5  30
Cerro/Questa....................  35  67  39  68 /  20   0   0  20
Red River.......................  31  62  31  62 /  20   0   0  20
Angel Fire......................  23  65  21  65 /  20   0   5  30
Taos............................  35  70  36  71 /  10   0   0  20
Mora............................  37  70  37  66 /  20   0  10  30
Espanola........................  40  75  42  77 /  10   0   0  20
Santa Fe........................  42  72  44  73 /  10   0   0  20
Santa Fe Airport................  40  76  42  77 /  10   0   0  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  50  75  54  78 /   0   0   0  20
Albuquerque Heights.............  52  79  53  81 /   0   0   0  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  41  81  45  83 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  48  78  49  81 /   0   0   0  10
Belen...........................  50  82  49  83 /   0   0   0  10
Bernalillo......................  46  78  47  81 /   0   0   0  20
Bosque Farms....................  46  80  46  82 /   0   0   0  10
Corrales........................  47  79  48  82 /   0   0   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  49  80  48  82 /   0   0   0  10
Placitas........................  47  75  50  78 /   0   0   0  20
Rio Rancho......................  48  77  49  80 /   0   0   0  10
Socorro.........................  52  83  53  84 /   0   0   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  43  71  46  74 /   0   0   0  20
Tijeras.........................  44  73  48  75 /   0   0   0  20
Edgewood........................  41  73  44  74 /   5   0   0  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  39  76  39  76 /  10   0   0  30
Clines Corners..................  44  72  45  71 /  10   0  10  30
Mountainair.....................  44  75  46  76 /   0   0   0  20
Gran Quivira....................  46  75  47  76 /   0   0   0  20
Carrizozo.......................  55  78  55  79 /   0   0   5  20
Ruidoso.........................  47  72  46  72 /   5   0  10  30
Capulin.........................  41  72  38  64 /  20   0  20  20
Raton...........................  40  75  38  68 /  20   0  20  20
Springer........................  42  78  39  71 /  20   0  10  20
Las Vegas.......................  43  73  40  68 /  20   0  10  30
Clayton.........................  52  81  47  67 /  10   0  20  20
Roy.............................  47  77  43  69 /  20   0  10  30
Conchas.........................  55  86  50  77 /  10   0  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  52  82  50  76 /  10   0  10  30
Tucumcari.......................  57  86  52  77 /  10   0  20  20
Clovis..........................  57  86  57  81 /   0   0  20  20
Portales........................  58  87  57  83 /   0   0  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  57  85  55  80 /   0   0  20  20
Roswell.........................  59  89  59  85 /   0   0  10  10
Picacho.........................  55  84  53  80 /   5   0  10  20
Elk.............................  53  79  51  77 /   5   0  10  20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ227>230.
Freeze Warning from late tonight through Sunday morning for
NMZ216.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion