124 FXUS63 KLMK 010734 AFDLMKArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 334 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Dry and warm weather through this weekend.
* Rain chances increase early to middle of next week.
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.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A mid/upper level ridge will slowly shift eastward over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley through tonight. A strong sfc high is forecast to build southeast over Quebec in the short term, maintaining NE low- level flow through the Ohio Valley. Plenty of dry air is resulting in clear skies as of this writing, though satellite imagery does show cirrus spreading southeast over Illinois. SCT-BKN thin high clouds will continue to spill southeastward over southern IN and central KY over the course of the day. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies, with afternoon highs in the 82-87 degree range. Tonight will be partly cloudy, with lows in the 50s.
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.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 333 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Our weather continues to look warm and dry through Sunday. Upper level ridging will remain in place during this stretch, but will gradually shift southeast over the CONUS as deeper troughing sets up over the western US and northern Plains. Strong ridging at the surface sinks south over the East Coast. Meanwhile, model guidance features a potent leeside low developing over the High Plains this weekend, with this storm then racing northeast into Canada. This system drags a cold front through the Upper Midwest by early next week. This establishes southerly flow, allowing moisture to finally advect northward between the front to the northwest and the high to the east.
Overall, it still looks really nice into the weekend. We`ll likely still have some high clouds around on Thursday. Highs in the low to mid 80s will be common during this stretch, with lows in the 50s.
Then it is a matter of how quickly the cold front to our north can sink into the region. It appears this boundary could be forced south through our area by the middle of next week. Depending on the quality of low-level moisture transport and degree of destabilization, showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday into Tuesday (especially Tuesday).
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.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 124 AM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions continue. Mainly clear skies overnight, with SCT high cirrus increasing in coverage from the northwest on Wednesday. Mainly light NE winds expected, increasing somewhat to 5-8 kts during the afternoon hours.
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.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None.
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SHORT TERM...EBW LONG TERM...EBW AVIATION...EBW
NWS LMK Office Area Forecast Discussion