Dixon, Wyoming Weather Forecast Discussion

334
FXUS65 KCYS 290807
AFDCYS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
207 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slightly cooler temperatures expected today with breezy
  conditions across western Nebraska and portions of southeast
  Wyoming.
- Gusty winds continue Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Drier conditions return mid- to late-week as another upper-
  level ridge moves overhead.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 206 AM MDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Some lower-level clouds have made their way into the CWA this
morning, leading to much more cloud cover than seen in the previous
several days. A few isolated showers are slowly migrating northward
across Carbon and Albany counties and should begin to dissipate and
move out of the area over the next few hours. Temperatures are
rather mild tonight, with current readings in the low-50s to mid-60s
across the Nebraska Panhandle. Chadron remains the warm spot once
again tonight as a weak downslope wind component is present across
that region. Winds in the southern Panhandle remain fairly strong
tonight under a very weak low-level jet.
Progressive flow ongoing aloft as the upper-level trough slowly
moves out of the area and a shortwave ridge pushes into the region
from the southwest before the next upper-level trough pushes into
the Intermountain West on Tuesday. Under this flow regime, multiple
500mb vorticity lobes are expected to eject across the region,
leading to synoptic lift across western and central portions of the
CWA. Weak 700mb flow is expected east of the Laramie Range today,
leading to very slow moving showers and storms, should any develop
this afternoon. 700mb flow remains mostly southwesterly west of the
Laramie Range and increases throughout the day. Southerly to
southwesterly flow at the surface today will lead to orographic lift
through the afternoon hours, increasing precipitation chances across
the higher elevations once again. 700mb temperatures remain slightly
cooler than yesterday, in the 7 to 9C range, with surface
temperatures in the upper-60s to mid-80s expected today. With the
strengthening 700mb flow out west through the day, surface winds
will increase through the afternoon hours before starting to
decrease in the evening hours as the atmosphere becomes more
decoupled for the overnight hours. Expecting gusts in the 20 to 30
mph range out west.
The next upper-level trough will begin to push through the region
Tuesday, though it is expected to weaken as it pushes through with a
ridge building behind. Ample 500mb vorticity will eject out ahead of
the approaching trough, leading to some lift across the CWA.
Southwesterly to westerly 700mb flow will continue throughout the
day Tuesday favoring some upslope along the higher terrain, but more
downsloping to the east of the Laramie Range. With downsloping east
of the Laramie Range, precipitation chances decrease significantly.
Cannot completely rule out some isolated showers near the higher
terrain, but as of now precipitation chances remain quite low.
Breezy conditions will continue out west with the southwesterly flow
at 700mb with a strengthening 700mb jet through the afternoon and
evening hours. Gusts up to 35 mph will be possible Tuesday afternoon
before a brief lull overnight. Winds look to increase again on
Wednesday morning as a 700mb trough pushes through over the northern
regions of the CWA and 700mb winds increase to almost 40kts.
Temperatures on Tuesday will be similar to Monday, with highs in the
upper-60s to mid-80s once more.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Warm and largely dry weather is expected to prevail Tuesday through
Friday, but a pattern change is increasingly likely for the weekend.
The synoptic pattern for most of the work week will be dominated by
a broad ridge encompassing most of the central and eastern CONUS
with southwest flow over our area. Tuesday looks like a mild day
ahead of a weak shortwave trough moving through the flow aloft.
Highs will be generally between 5 and 10F above average for the time
of year. As the shortwave passes through, we may see a few showers
kick off in the late afternoon through the evening hours, mainly
concentrated near the higher terrain as usual. There won`t be much
of an impact from this system aside from a wind shift to westerly
for Wednesday and perhaps a decrease in maximum temperature by a few
degrees. This will carry into another warming trend through the end
of the week. Thursday looks like the warmest of the week with 700-mb
temperatures peaking around +10 to +12C in advance of a much
stronger trough slowing pushing inland from the Pacific Northwest.
This trough will be the main player for Friday into the weekend.
However, there is quite a bit of spread between model scenarios in
strength and timing of individual shortwave troughs ejecting out of
the broad longwave trough. While the overall trend over the last 24
hours has been towards a more organized system in the Friday to
Saturday time period, the details are still unclear. The ECMWF
ensemble system is generally clustered around a faster solution
which breezes through some light precipitation Friday night and
clears things out by Saturday morning. Other solutions, most notably
the GFS and a good chunk of GEFS members, show a slower but stronger
shortwave trough moving through about 12 to 24 hours later,
supporting more widespread moderate precipitation and stronger winds
on Saturday. Due to these timing discrepancies, the official
forecast includes low end PoPs for most of the Friday PM through
Sunday period. Regardless of the precipitation outcome, expect this
system to bring a decent cool down, knocking temperatures down to at
least seasonal averages, if not 5 to 10F below average. Expect the
weekend to feel much more like autumn than summer.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
An upper level disturbance will slowly move northeast across the
region tonight into Monday. Although thunderstorm activity has
ended, can not rule out another round of showers and embedded
thunder for southeast Wyoming tonight as this disturbance lifts
northeast.
HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail through Monday
with occasional gusts out of the south to southwest up to 25 knots.
Scattered showers and widely scattered thunderstorms expected for
KCYS, KBFF and KLAR after 20z Monday with brief MVFR VIS possible,
added PROB30 TS for these locations. Lower chances (~15%) for KRWL
and KSNY late Monday afternoon.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AM
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...TJT

NWS CYS Office Area Forecast Discussion