Dollar Bay, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

152
FXUS63 KMQT 271144
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
744 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A mostly dry and low impact weather pattern with mainly above
  average temperatures holds into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Upper level shortwave ridging was over the area early this morning
providing clear skies over the central and eastern U.P. An upper
level low pressure was over the Hudson Bay and a shortwave trough
was pushing through western Ontario with a cold front extending
southwest into western MN. Clear skies, light wind and dry air had
allowed for good radiational cooling over much of the central and
eastern U.P with temperatures falling into the mid 30s to mid
40s. Over the far west and Keweenaw southerly winds helped keep
the low levels mixed with temperatures only falling to around 50
and then warming some overnight as winds increased and high
clouds moved in.
The pattern will remain progressive over the next few days though
the storm track will be well north of the U.P. The first system will
move through Manitoba into northern Ontario today dragging a cold
front through the U.P. The front won`t bring much of a temperature
change, rather a wind shift to the west-northwest and much drier
air. Highs will range from the upper 60s west to the mid 70s east
today. Afternoon RH will drop to around 30% in the interior west
though with winds less than 15 mph not expecting elevated fire
weather concerns. No precipitation is expected to accompany the
front.
Upper level ridging will build into the Midwest Sunday through
midweek resulting in rather quiet weather with plenty of sunshine
and afternoon highs 5 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages (upper
60s to mid 70s). The NBM is struggling with dewpoints for Sunday
into early next week during the afternoon, not accounting for
mixing well. Model soundings show a deep layer of dry air which
should easily mix down to the surface during the late morning
and afternoon hours.  Lowered the dewpoints below guidance
during the afternoon hours Sunday and Monday with RH falling to
around 30% over the southern half of the U.P. Winds will
continue to remain light and minimize fire weather concerns
despite the low RH. The next chance for rain comes on Friday
with the NBM introducing slight to chance PoPs.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 743 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A brief period of LIFR/VLIFR fog will impact SAW early this morning.
In addition, other impacts include a LLWS threat at CMX through mid-
morning along with a wind shift from south to west. Surface wind
speeds at CMX could gust to 25 to 30 kts through mid-morning.
Elsewhere, IWD can also expect southwest wind gusts up to 20 kts
through mid-morning. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions throughout
the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Light winds of 20 knots or less continue the rest of today as high
pressure moves through the region. However, as a cold front
approaches the lake tonight, expect winds to pick up from the south
at 20 to 30 knots, particularly over the central lake; a gust or two
up to 30 knots, while not expected, cannot be completely ruled out
either at this time. Along the front, there may be an isolated
shower or thunderstorm over Lake Superior Saturday morning (15% or
less), but for the most part no precipitation is expected. As the
cold front moves through Saturday morning, expect to see winds veer
to the west with a few gusts up to 20 to 25 knots before picking up
over the western half of the lake from the west-southwest late in
the day; expect the winds to die back down to 20 knots or less again
Saturday night as high pressure returns to the region. Light winds
of generally 20 knots or less look to continue through most of the
rest of next week as high pressure ridging settles overtop the Upper
Great Lakes.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...TAP

NWS mqt Office Area Forecast Discussion