Dongola, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

662
FXUS63 KJKL 030910
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
510 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and generally above normal temperatures persist into early
  next week.
- Into the weekend, valley fog is likely to develop each night.
- Chances for rain will return for Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky still under the influence
of dry high pressure centered to the east of the state while
lower pressure is well off to the west and south. This high is
keeping the winds light and skies mostly clear again this night -
though a small patch of high, thin clouds are drifting over the
area at the moment. These conditions again favored decent
radiational cooling for the night and has resulted in a small to
moderate ridge/valley temperature divide throughout eastern
Kentucky - while also allowing for tendrils of dense fog running
along the river valleys. Currently, temperatures vary from the
low to mid 50s in some of the low, sheltered spots to the lower
60s on many thermal belt, hilltop locations. Meanwhile, dewpoints
are running in the low to mid 50s, most places, with some drier
upper 40s noted in the far east.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
excellent agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict 5h ridging holding forth above eastern
Kentucky into the weekend. This will keep mid level winds light
and any energy far away from the area, though a weak cluster slips
closer to the state later Saturday evening from the southwest. In
addition, the ridging will work to suppress any convection
through the weekend. The model spread remains quite small during
the short term portion of the forecast - continuing to support
using the NBM as the starting point of the grids with minimal
adjustments needed - mainly just to include terrain based
enhancements for temperatures at night.
Sensible weather features more pleasant warm and dry days with
temperatures reaching the low 80s for highs today and Saturday,
thanks to plenty of sunshine and the dry air mass. Expect mostly
clear conditions again for tonight with valley fog developing -
likely becoming locally dense towards dawn, Saturday. High
pressure from the east holding over the area will continue this
extended summer-like warmth through the weekend.
The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
adjusting temperatures tonight for terrain based details along
with tweaking the afternoon dewpoints and RH a tad lower today and
Saturday - reflecting the mix down of drier air from aloft.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 510 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
The main changes to the extended forecast this morning were to
enhance the terrain based differences for more in the way of
ridge to valley temperatures splits each night through next
weekend. Did also tweak afternoon dewpoints a tad lower due to
dry air mix-down anticipated. The PoPs are still looking quite
limited up until Monday afternoon.
The previous long term discussion follows:
Very little change is anticipated in the overall synoptic pattern
going into the extended forecast period, as the upper- level
ridging persists with the ridge axis positioned directly over the
CWA. Simultaneously, a closed upper-level high remains situated
over the Gulf Coast. However, to the west, an advancing upper-
level longwave trough and associated jet streak are poised to move
off the Rockies and into the Central Plains. At the surface, a
low-pressure wave will similarly track eastward off the Rockies
and slowly eject northeastward into the Upper Midwest through the
rest of the weekend. Models suggest this system will track mainly
through southern Canada, but will leave a trailing area of surface
baroclinicity. This baroclinic zone will be a crucial focus for
the development of the next system, as another upstream shortwave
is forecast to develop and move over this area of baroclinicity,
leading to the cyclogenesis of a new surface low by the start of
Tuesday. With this cyclogenesis occurring and the associated
upper-level trough digging southeastward, the new surface low and
its attendant frontal boundaries are forecast to approach the area
for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will be possible with FROPA. However, the frontal
timing is currently forecast to be overnight Tuesday into
Wednesday, which will limit available daytime instability.
Furthermore, long-term guidance indicates the potential for
diurnally driven CI earlier on Tuesday afternoon as southeasterly
to easterly flow, around a surface high pressure center, advects
moisture rich air into, which could consume all available
atmospheric instability, thus largely negating the potential for
organized overnight convection with the front. There remains
uncertainty regarding the overall QPF and PoP with this
approaching boundary, as the long-term model suites are not in
complete agreement on timing, frontal speed, and the duration of
the FROPA. The ECMWF is notably quicker with the frontal passage,
leading to a suppressed PoP and lower QPFs compared to the GFS,
which tracks the system slower, resulting in higher PoP and QPFs.
Nonetheless, the overall trend supports an increasing potential
for precipitation toward the end of the forecast period. Overall,
the start of the forecast period will be characterized by
sustained upper-level ridging and surface high pressure.
Precipitation chances increase for Tuesday afternoon and continue
through the end of the period. High temperatures will remain in
the low to mid 80s through Tuesday, but with the approaching cold
front and increased precipitation, temperatures are forecast to
fall into the lower 70s for Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight
minimum temperatures will follow this same trend, starting in the
upper 50s to lower 60s before cooling significantly into the mid
to upper 40s for Wednesday and Thursday night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT FRI OCT 3 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period at all TAF sites
with high pressure in firm control. Some fog formation is expected
early this morning in the most sheltered river valleys.
Additionally, a few high clouds during the rest of the night will
be joined by some mid-level clouds from this morning onward. In
general, winds will be light and variable at around 5 kts or less
through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST/GREIF
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion