Dos Vientos Ranch, California Weather Forecast Discussion

398
FXUS66 KLOX 100700
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1200 AM PDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...09/949 AM.
A period of cooler, well below normal temperatures will last at
least through this week. Morning marine layer clouds will expand
across coastal areas and many valleys with morning drizzle
possible through Friday, followed by a gradual warming trend for
the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...09/846 PM.
***UPDATE***
Temperatures cooled significantly today away from the coasts,
with about 7 to 13 degrees of cooling. Thanks to the nearing low
pressure system to the north, the marine layer deepened
significantly, allowing clouds and patchy fog to to reach through
the LA Basin and into the valleys. Heights continue to fall into
Wednesday, and we should see further cooling for Wednesday and
clouds and fog push even further into the valleys tonight. Strong
northerly winds have ramp up again for the Santa Barbara south
coast this evening. Gusts peaked early this morning in the low
50s, and could see similar speeds tonight into Wednesday morning.
The current forecast looks on track with no significant changes
needed.
***From Previous Discussion***
An unseasonably strong low pressure system is currently off the
coast of the California Bay Area. The center of this system will
remain well to the north of the SoCal region, mainly bringing a
period of well below normal temperatures, increased moisture
aloft, and some area of gusty winds. Wednesday and Thursday will
be the coldest day so the week, with highs around 6 to 12 degrees
below normal.
Moderate onshore flow towards the east will persist over the next
few days. The surface pressure gradients will combine with strong
upper level west- southwest winds to yield gusty onshore
winds today across the passes and canyons of the San Gabriel
Mountains and the Antelope Valley Foothills. However, less cold
air advection compared to yesterday may reduce the gust
potentially somewhat. Additionally northwest Sundowner Winds are
anticipated to restrengthen late this afternoon through tonight
across southwestern Santa Barbara County. Breezy conditions may
extend as far east as the foothills above Goleta. A Wind Advisory
has been issued for SW Santa Barbara County tonight, in addition
to the one currently in effect for the San Gabriel Mountains and
Antelope Valley Foothills.
Cyclonic flow over the area will result in upward motion that
will lift the Marine layer tonight, bringing clouds and a chance
of drizzle far inland into most valleys. The lift may even break
down the temperature inversion above the marine layer, which would
result in much clearer skies than forecast tomorrow morning. The
morning low clouds will be similar Thursday, however the chance
of drizzle will be reduced. In response to the northwesterly
Sundowner winds, a weak Catalina Eddy may develop, which may keep
clouds across the LA Basin late into tomorrow morning.
There is a less than 10 percent chance of an afternoon shower and
a non-zero chance of lightning across the interior (focused over
the mountains) tomorrow and Thursday afternoon, as a result of
vorticity and periphery moisture brought by the low pressure
system.
.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...09/226 PM.
A small pop up ridge will develop over the weekend, though it
will be weakened by another low pressure system centered well to
the north the region. By mid next week, broad ridging is favored
to develop. The 500 mb height changes will result in a gradual
warming trend through at least Tuesday. However, even by Tuesday
temperatures will still be mostly below normal. Rising 500 mb
heights will also lead to shallower marine layer clouds that will
not extend as far inland, with a greater chance of fog.
&&
.AVIATION...10/0659Z.
At 0515Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1400 feet deep. The top of
the weak inversion was 2500 feet with a temperature of 20 C.
High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.
Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSMX and KSBP where cig hgts may
rise faster than fcst.
Moderate confidence in the TAF for KSBA with a 25 percent chc of
MVFR cigs 12Z-17Z.
Moderate confidence in the remainder of TAFs. Low clouds are
likely at all sites by 13Z but exact arrival timing may be off.
Cig hgts may rise faster than fcst. There is a 30 percent chc of
-DZ 11Z-15Z.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival of cigs may be as
late as 13Z. DZ is possible 11Z-15Z. There is a 30 percent chance
of an east wind component up to 8 kts 10Z-16Z.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. VFR conds could arrive as late
as 19Z. OVC022 conds could arrive as early as 12Z. DZ is possible
11Z-15Z.
&&
.MARINE...09/837 PM.
Across the outer waters south of Point Sal, Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) northwest winds are expected through at least Sunday, with
brief lulls possible during the morning hours. North of Point Sal
(including the nearshore waters), there is a 30% chance of SCA
winds during the afternoon/evening hours Wednesday, increasing to
a 40-50% chance Thursday afternoon and continuing through
Saturday (with lulls during the morning hours). Wind driven, short
period, choppy seas will be likely during the afternoon/evening
hours accompanying the winds, and heights will peak at around 6 to
8 feet Thursday afternoon through the weekend.
For the inner waters South of Point Conception, SCA level west
winds are likely during the afternoon/evening hours through
Wednesday night, especially across the Santa Barbara Channel,
near Point Dume, and across the San Pedro Channel. Chances for SCA
level winds decrease to 40-50% for the afternoon/evening hours
Thursday through the weekend. Wind driven, short period, choppy
seas are likely during the afternoon/evening hours accompanying
the winds and heights will peak Wednesday night at around 3 to 6
feet.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for zones
      349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Phillips/Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Lund/Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Schoenfeld
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion