Dover Foxcroft, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

394
FXUS61 KCAR 050704
AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
304 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
An cold front will cross the area today and continue to the
east tonight. Another cold front will push into the region
Saturday and stall as a wave of low pressure tracks along the
front Saturday into Saturday night. The front will continue to
the east Sunday into Monday. High pressure will return on
Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A vertically stacked low pressure system is currently sitting
north of the Great Lakes region with a cold front extending from
the center south into New England. The cold front is currently
approaching the Maine border and is expected to progress east
throughout the day today. Expect rain showers across western
and central regions early this morning, gradually becoming more
scattered in nature as the cold front outruns its upper level
support. Showers throughout the day and overnight will be mostly
confined to the north. Patchy fog is also possible early this
morning, especially closer to the coast, as a result of the
light, moist southerly flow.
Patchy fog is possible again tomorrow night towards the south
but is likely to dissipate quickly in the morning as southerly
winds increase. Early tomorrow a secondary cold front will
approach from the northwest with ample forcing for ascent along
it, aided by an upper-level trough off to its west. Ahead of the
cold front, breaks in the clouds should allow enough surface
heating for 500-800 J/kg of surface-based instability to
develop. The kinematic environment will be quite good with ample
deep-layer shear of 40-50 kts, however, the limited instability
will likely preclude a greater severe threat. Regardless, model
soundings currently show steep low-level lapse rates which in
combination with strong winds associated with a low-level jet
ahead of the cold front may allow storms to mix some strong
gusts down to the surface. The uncertainty lies in just how much
instability can develop based on the amount of clearing as well
as the exact timing of the front which models are showing some
discrepancy on. In addition to the severe threat, a soaking rain
is also expected with the highest totals reaching an inch or
more along a line from Greenville to southern Aroostook county.
The Downeast region is likely to see some of the lowest totals
where rainfall is expected to be between 0.5 and 0.75 inches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The shallow wave of low pressure expected to bring a band of rain to
the area on Saturday will be sliding to the northeast as the frontal
boundary over the area resumes its push to the east. Some rain,
along with embedded thunderstorms, will continue over the area along
the front Saturday evening. Initially, the front will move very
slowly as there are some signs that a weak trailing secondary wave
may slide up along the front Sunday morning. This secondary wave may
prolong the rain Downeast for a while on Sunday. Later Sunday into
Sunday night the lows along the front will consolidate over the
Maritimes and the front will continue its push east.
Moderately cooler air will follow the front Sunday night into Monday
as high pressure building into the area pushes some cooler air down
from within the upper trough. Monday should turn out mostly sunny
Downeast while the north has sunshine mixed with cumulus clouds.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure building over the area Monday night will bring a
mostly clear and very chilly night. Temperatures may drop into the
mid 30s over some of the cooler northwestern valleys where some
patchy frost will be possible. This will be followed by a mostly
sunny and cool day on Tuesday with high pressure cresting over the
area.
High pressure will slide to the east Tuesday night into Wednesday as
a return southwesterly flow begins behind the high. This will usher
in slightly warmer air back into the area allowing highs to reach
the low 70s on Wednesday under a sunny to partly cloudy sky.
A new area of high pressure will approach from the northwest on
Thursday pushing a cold front into the area. This may bring some
showers, mainly across the north during the midday and afternoon
Thursday. Currently, there is significant model discrepancy in the
amount of moisture this front carries with the GFS advertising a
moist front with the potential for up to a quarter inch of rain
while the ECMWF has only very light and spotty showers. Both models
are following the front with strong gusty northwesterly winds and
chilly air on Friday as a breath of Autumn blows into the area.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR conditions will lower to IFR over the next
several hours, eventually lifting to MVFR mid to late morning.
Some patchy fog is still possible this morning but have lower
confidence now than during previous TAF cycle. Some sites,
especially northern terminals, may briefly reach VFR this
afternoon before decreasing to IFR Friday night.
Isolated/scattered showers at northern terminals through Friday
night. On Saturday, MVFR conditions early may drop to IFR later in
low clouds and rain. Thunder is also possible Saturday with the
greatest chance at HUL/BGR. South winds winds 10 to 15 knots
with gusts up to 25 knots Friday and Saturday. Wind shear also
expected Friday night.
SHORT TERM:
Saturday night...IFR improving to MVFR north. IFR south. Light and
variable winds.
Sunday...MVFR becoming VFR north early and VFR south around midday.
Light W winds.
Sunday night and Monday...VFR. Light W winds.
Monday night...VFR except in any patchy valley fog late at night in
the inland valleys. Light W wind becoming calm.
Tuesday...VFR. Light SW winds.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels overnight
through Friday. Small Craft Advisory conditions begin Friday
night and continue through Saturday. Seas up to 4 to 6 ft with
gusts to 25 kts possible over outer waters. Patchy fog through
mid-day Friday.
SHORT TERM:
Wind and seas are expected to be below SCA late this weekend
through mid-week next week. Showers may limit visibility
Saturday night into Sunday with improved visibility early next
week.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
Near Term...Melanson
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...Melanson/Bloomer
Marine...Melanson/Bloomer

NWS CAR Office Area Forecast Discussion