Downs, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

312
FXUS63 KGID 110917
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
417 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm (upper 80s) and breezy (Gusts to 30 MPH) today with a
  small chance (10-30%) for a thunderstorm late tonight.
- Unseasonably warm Friday with high temperatures 10-15 degrees
  above normal.
- The next best precipitation chance for more widespread
  showers/thunderstorms are expected Saturday night/Sunday with
  an upper level trough. A few strong to marginally severe
  storms may be possible Saturday night.
- Periodic (mainly small) chances for thunderstorms next week.
  Temperatures will fluctuate a few degrees either side of
  normal (normal Highs are around 80).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Mostly clear skies and lights winds prevailed across the region
overnight. This has allowed some very patchy fog to develop in
spots, with visibilities falling to 1-2 miles at a few automated
sites. Models hint at a few very isolated spots developing
potentially dense fog towards daybreak, which will likely be
limited to low lying and very sheltered locations (if it
develops at all). Did add some fog to the forecast through 9 AM,
although do not think it will be widespread or overall a big
deal. Otherwise, the forecast for the afternoon looks on track,
with a mostly sunny and breezy afternoon expected across the
region. Increased winds gusts a bit, with gusts of 30-35 mph not
out of the question.
The other main change in the short term forecast was to add a
chance for showers and thunderstorms late this evening and
overnight. Models key in on the LLJ developing across the region
by 10 PM...with areas along and north of I-80 being in a favored
location for some ascent and shower and thunderstorm
development. The 06Z HRRR (as well as previous runs) continues
to point at this potential, and have 10-30% pops now in the
forecast for areas mainly north of I-80 overnight.
Otherwise...Friday continues to look like the hottest day of the
period with widespread high temperatures in the 90s as the upper
level ridge amplifies across the local area. This ridge will
then begin to shift east on Saturday, with an upper level
trough expected to cross the region Saturday night through
Sunday. This trough should provide sufficient forcing for more
widespread shower and thunderstorm development...some of which
could be on the strong to marginally severe side given the ample
instability and a marginal shear profile. Looking at models
soundings, strong winds look to be the main hazards, with
marginally severe hail also possible. Currently we are not
outlooked.
As the upper level trough then lifts north on Sunday, a cloudy,
cooler and unsettled day appears in store the local area, with
off and on additional small chances for precipitation (along
with seasonable temperatures) anticipated over the course of
the next week. Looking at ensemble data, the next best shot for
more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity looks to be
with another upper level trough/disturbance late Tuesday
night/Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
VFR conditions will prevail through the daytime hours Thursday,
with a prob30 group introduced for a chance of a -SHRA/-TSRA
and a MVFR CIG from 12/03-12/06Z at KEAR. For this morning...
scattered high level clouds can be seen streaming across the
area with light southeasterly winds at the surface. Some hints
of BR developing towards daybreak, but signals are weak, and did
not include any mention in 06Z TAFs. Winds should increase in
southerly flow across the area aft 12/16Z...with gusts to near
25 KTS possible during the afternoon hours.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion