Dry Fork, Utah Weather Forecast Discussion

625
FXUS65 KGJT 250904
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
304 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer and drier conditions continue today before moisture
  increases from south to north throughout the weekend.
- A prolonged period of active/wet weather is possible this
  weekend through early next week.
- Moisture spikes Sunday into Monday which coincides with a
  passing system. Stronger storms with the threat of heavy rain
  could lead to excess runoff issues especially over recent burn
  scars.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The interaction between the northern and southern streams the
next few days and a SubTropical moisture tap looks likely to
bring some interesting weather late this week into early next
week. Most of the focus will be on a closed low that hand
analysis has sitting off the central Cali coast this morning.
High pressure remains in control over the Intermountain West and
troughing East of the Rockies. A quiet and warm day today will
be the last for a while as we begin to introduce moisture to the
profile tonight. PWAT looks to double from late this afternoon
into Friday afternoon. Driving this moisture advection will be
the arrival of the off shore low into Southwest as a northern
stream trough moves through and nudges in inland. Isolated
nocturnal showers/virga will move into the 4 Corners region
overnight on this moisture surge. The bulk of large scale
forcing remains upstream of us in the diffluent eastern edge of
the cyclone over SoCal. Terrain forcing and weak vorticity
advection over the southern and western CWA will help release
instability in this moister regime and pop isolated to scattered
afternoon convection. Moderate to heavy rainfall rates will be
possible in the stronger storms with the biggest threat to the
burn scars in the southern Colorado mountians. Temperatures the
next few days look to stay near to slightly above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
On Saturday and Sunday the low will kick out and start lifting
over the area. The models are in pretty decent agreement with
strength and timing of the wave. Some details still need to get
worked out especially if we get any instability. Moisture and
forcing should coincide for this round therefore precipitation
chances increase. PWAT values during this timeframe range from
150-200 percent of normal, which is modest. Conditions dry out
some for early next week, although another could quickly move in
from the west.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR and light winds prevail the next 24 hours.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion