Duck Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

582
FXUS62 KKEY 041741
AFDKEY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
141 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF
period. Light showers will continue to wax and wane across the
island chain leaving VCSH at both locations for the next few hours.
Showers that pass directly over either terminal could briefly
deteriorate CIGs and VIS and TEMPOs will be included if need be.
Near surface winds will be northeast to east at 5 to 10 knots.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
A busy morning for portions of the Straits of Florida and deep
Gulf waters. KBYX radar is detecting stronger thunderstorms that
are currently northeast of the Dry Tortugas. Outside of those
thunderstorms, garden variety showers are impacting portions of
the Lower and Middle Keys. GOES-19 satelitte imagery displays that
while the Lower and Middle Keys are cloudy, the Upper Keys are in
a mostly sunny skies. This shows in the temperature difference
while Key West is currently 82F and Key Largo is observing 85F.
Along the Reef, winds are northeast to east at 10 to 15 knots.
This morning`s 12z sounding recorded 2.03 inches of PWAT which is
almost a quarter of an inch more than last night`s value, which
checks out with more showers in our CWA today. For the rest of the
day, things will continue similarly with showers and thunderstorms
popping up in various locations before burning out and coming back
down. 60% PoPs seems appropriate for the environment, so no
changes are necessary to this update.
&&
.FORECAST...
Issued at 435 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
The aforementioned area of low pressure near the Bahamas is
expected to drift west-northwestward across the northwestern
Bahamas and toward southern Florida during the next couple of
days. Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant
development of the low. Meanwhile, the stationary boundary it
developed along will hold in place through the upcoming weekend.
All of this to say, we are still expecting an active period of
weather for the Florida Keys.
As this features lifts northwest of the Keys by Monday, high
pressure that remains anchored along the eastern half of the U.S.
will fill back in. This will result in freshening northeast to
east breezes. Meanwhile, the stationary boundary will attempt to
lift north of the Florida Keys but get shoved back across the
island chain as the high builds in. This will keep the boundary
and moisture in place through next week. When combined with the
moderate to fresh breezes, convergence zones will likely develop
at times and promote shower and thunderstorm development.
Therefore, will keep generally above normal rain chances through
the forecast period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for
the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a weak area of low
pressure located near the central and northwestern Bahamas will
act to weaken the pressure gradient briefly across the Florida
Keys. This will result in slackening breezes veering from the
northeast to the southeast through Sunday. This system is expected
to drift west- northwestward across the northwestern Bahamas and
toward southern Florida during the next couple of days. As it
lifts north and northwest of the Keys, high pressure across the
Atlantic will build back in resulting in freshening northeast to
east breezes.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ076.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....AP
Data Acquisition.....AP
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NWS KEY Office Area Forecast Discussion